Unverified reports that President Donald Trump has agreed to a contentious ethics provision have triggered a sharp jump in betting-market expectations that a major US crypto bill, the Clarity Act, will become law this year.
On the crypto prediction platform Polymarket, traders pushed the implied probability of the Clarity Act passing in 2026 up to 43% after the reports emerged, from a record low only a week earlier. No formal bill text has yet been released and the alleged agreement has not been confirmed by the White House or congressional leaders.
The legislation is seen as a pivotal attempt to define and regulate the structure of the US crypto market, and its prospects have been closely watched by both digital-asset firms and traditional financial institutions.
Ethics row at heart of Washington stand-off
According to the reports, the breakthrough centres on an ethics clause that had been the final major obstacle to advancing the bill.
The dispute focuses on how much senior US officials are allowed to profit from crypto-related holdings while serving in office. That question has drawn particular scrutiny because of President Trump’s own exposure to the sector, including his widely discussed “memecoins” and his family’s stake in World Liberty Financial, a crypto-linked venture.
Democrats in Congress have complained that, despite the flurry of speculation, they have still not seen the latest text of the Clarity Act. That has added to unease on Capitol Hill over whether any apparent compromise on ethics would materially limit potential conflicts of interest among top officeholders.
There has been no official confirmation that Mr Trump has signed off on the proposed ethics language, or clarity on how stringent any new restrictions would be.
Crypto markets edge higher after betting shift
Major cryptocurrencies including bitcoin, ether and XRP recorded gains following the move in Polymarket odds.
Bitcoin rose to around $66,262, up just over 2% on the day. Ether and XRP also traded higher, mirroring a modest improvement in sentiment across digital-asset markets.
However, traders and analysts stressed that the rally in crypto prices appeared to be driven primarily by strength in broader technology markets, particularly artificial intelligence and semiconductor stocks, rather than by legislative optimism alone.
The reaction underlined how closely crypto assets remain tied to risk appetite in high-growth tech sectors, even as regulatory headlines provide an additional layer of volatility.
Trading volumes show signs of revival
The speculation over the Clarity Act comes against a backdrop of improving activity on centralised cryptocurrency exchanges (CEXs).
CEX trading volumes rose in June for the first time in five months. Spot trading climbed 15.3% to reach $1.11tn, signalling a tentative return of liquidity and retail interest after a prolonged lull.
At the same time, trading in perpetual futures linked to real-world assets (RWA) on these platforms surged to a record $311bn. The growth in RWA-linked products has been seen by some in the industry as a sign that crypto infrastructure is increasingly being used to gain exposure to traditional asset classes.
Supporters of the Clarity Act argue that a clearer regulatory framework could bolster this trend by providing more certainty for large institutional players considering deeper involvement in tokenised markets.
Uncertain path for landmark bill
Despite the sudden jump in betting odds, the path for the Clarity Act remains uncertain.
The lack of publicly available bill text, unresolved partisan tensions over ethics rules and the crowded legislative calendar all present potential hurdles to passage before the end of the year.
For now, prediction markets like Polymarket suggest traders see a significantly higher chance than last week that the bill will cross the finish line in 2026 but still price in a greater likelihood that it will not.
