Solana recovered above $100 after buyers defended the $95-$96 support zone, although resistance near $102.80 and heavy liquidation levels between $101 and $102 could decide whether the rebound develops into a broader recovery.
SOL fell to a 24-hour low of $96.23 before trading close to $100.50 on Thursday. The sell-off followed the US Senate’s failed procedural vote on the CLARITY Act and the Federal Reserve’s 25-basis-point rate increase.
Buyers emerged after the cryptocurrency briefly dropped below $100, sparking a recovery to the Murrey Math major support and resistance pivot at $100. Holding that level would improve the short-term picture after the fall from the late-August high of about $110.
However, Solana has yet to overcome the lower highs established during September. Crypto analyst Ella had identified $95-$96 as the key area to defend, saying SOL reached $96.13 around the Fed decision before recovering to $98.72 and initially outperforming Bitcoin and Ethereum.
“Get back above it and yesterday’s damage starts to look repairable,” Ella wrote, referring to the $100 level.
She also warned that another move below $96 could quickly undermine the recovery. A sustained series of closes above $100, rather than a brief intraday move, is therefore needed to confirm that the rebound is holding.
Momentum improves but trend signal remains weak
The daily Aroon indicator has turned in favour of buyers, with Aroon Up at 85.71% and Aroon Down at 21.43%. The difference suggests that a recent high is carrying more significance than the latest low over the indicator’s 14-day period.
Solana must remain above $100 for that signal to stay constructive. The next daily resistance is $106.25, the upper boundary of the current Murrey Math range. A daily close above it could strengthen the prospect of a move towards $110 and the next major pivot at $112.50, followed by resistance at $118.75 and $125.
On the four-hour chart, the Supertrend remained bearish, with resistance near $102.80. The Awesome Oscillator was also below zero at about -0.76, although its negative bars were shrinking, indicating that selling pressure was easing. A move above zero would provide further confirmation; otherwise, SOL could face rejection between $101 and $103.
The three-day CoinGlass liquidation heatmap shows concentrated leveraged positions around $101.30 and $101.80-$102. A move into that zone could liquidate short positions and push the price towards the four-hour Supertrend. Further liquidity is positioned near $105 and $105.70.
Downside concentrations are visible around $99, $96 and $95.50. A loss of $99 could draw SOL back towards the defended $95-$96 area as leveraged long positions come under pressure. The heatmap does not predict direction, but a break outside the recent $96-$103 range could accelerate the next move.
Rand Group said Solana was defending horizontal support while testing a local downtrend, describing the compression beneath descending resistance as a possible breakout setup.
DeFi Development Corp.’s reported $300 million financing facility for SOL treasury purchases could provide another source of demand, although its impact depends on the pace and execution of purchases.
A close below $96 would invalidate the rebound and expose $93.75, followed by $87.50 and major support at $75. US investors may also remain sensitive to Treasury yields, expectations of another Fed rate increase and regulatory uncertainty following the CLARITY Act setback.
This article is not investment advice; its content is for educational purposes only.
