Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan has changed his assessment of the stalled CLARITY Act, saying the Senate setback is a “speed bump, not a roadblock” after Bitcoin rose from $57,950 in July to above $80,000 before the vote.
The Senate rejected a motion to invoke cloture on H.R. 3633 by 49 votes to 50 on 15 September, with one senator not voting. Sixty votes were needed to allow debate on the crypto market structure bill. It was not a final vote on the legislation, and no further vote has been scheduled.
Republican senators Susan Collins, Josh Hawley, Jerry Moran and Thom Tillis voted against cloture. Tillis changed his vote after the result was clear, preserving the possibility of a future motion to reconsider.
In a 16 September memo, Hougan said he no longer believed another six weeks of difficult trading was the most likely outcome. He had previously compared the bill to crypto’s “Punxsutawney Phil”, arguing that failure to pass it could prolong a market winter.
Bitwise said Bitcoin’s 1 July low was about $57,950 before the cryptocurrency exceeded $80,000 on 4 September. During the same period, Polymarket’s implied probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 fell from 39% to 18%.
Hougan said the contrasting movements weakened his earlier view that the bill’s passage was necessary for the recovery to continue. However, Bitwise cautioned that the figures did not prove falling legislative expectations caused Bitcoin’s rise or guarantee future performance.
Financial-sector projects continue
Hougan also pointed to continued activity by major financial companies. Robinhood launched the public mainnet of Robinhood Chain on 1 July, describing it as a permissionless, Ethereum-compatible Layer 2 for financial services and tokenised assets. Its second-quarter regulatory filing said the network had progressed from a February public testnet.
Robinhood also introduced Stock Tokens for eligible Robinhood Wallet users in more than 120 countries, with about 200 tokens available by September.
Morgan Stanley launched its MSOL Solana exchange-traded product on NYSE Arca on 28 July, alongside its Ether product, MSSE. The SEC had declared the Morgan Stanley Solana Trust registration effective on 23 July. Both products charge a 0.14% sponsor fee, seek exposure to SOL and Ether, and incorporate staking.
The Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation said on 15 July that about 40 firms had taken part in live production transactions involving DTC-tokenised assets. The activity covered equity trades, US Treasury and repo transactions, securities lending, collateral pledges and token transfers, ahead of the planned October 2026 launch of its Tokenization Service. Participants included BlackRock, JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs.
Regulators retain some powers
Hougan said the SEC and CFTC could continue crypto rulemaking without new legislation. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins has called legislation “indispensable”, but the SEC’s proposed Regulation Crypto Assets, published on 18 August, would create tailored exemptions for some crypto investment-contract offerings and a conditional safe harbour.
The proposal remains open for public comment until 20 October and is not final. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig said on 16 September that the agency was “locked in and ready to ship its rules for the new frontier of finance” using existing authority.
The CFTC established an Innovation Task Force in March covering crypto assets, blockchain, artificial intelligence and prediction markets. Hougan acknowledged that only Congress could give the CFTC the full spot-market jurisdiction envisaged by the CLARITY Act. Rules could also face court challenges or be changed by future commissions.
Markets fell after the Senate vote, with Bitcoin dropping about 4% to roughly $75,908 and Coinbase and Circle shares falling close to 9%, according to Reuters. About $571m in long positions were liquidated over 24 hours, including nearly $190m each in Bitcoin and Ether positions.
The Federal Reserve then raised its benchmark rate to 3.75%-4.00% on 16 September, its first increase since 2023. By 17 September, CoinGecko showed Bitcoin near $76,274, up about 0.5% in 24 hours but down roughly 2.1% over seven days.
