Bitcoin was trading just above $82,500 on Wednesday, a level described by XS.com’s Simon-Peter Massabni as the cryptocurrency’s most important support, while stronger stock futures followed better-than-expected results from SpaceX and oil prices moved back above $110.
The cryptocurrency has again been moving closely with technology stocks. Bitcoin fell alongside the Nasdaq last week after a hotter-than-expected US inflation report triggered selling in artificial intelligence and chip companies.
Massabni, XS.com’s head of business development, said the relationship between Bitcoin and technology markets was becoming increasingly pronounced.
“In the short term, this development challenges the notion that Bitcoin can consistently serve as an independent safe haven from traditional market volatility,” he said.
A “decisive and sustained break” below $82,500 could shift control to sellers and leave Bitcoin vulnerable to a fall towards $70,000, Massabni said.
That level is also the downside scenario identified by market maker Wintermute. Reaching it would represent a further 15% decline from current levels.
Technology stocks offer support
Bitcoin received some support from the wider technology market on Wednesday, with Nasdaq 100 futures rising 0.4% and S&P 500 futures gaining 0.2%.
SpaceX shares rose 9% before the opening of trading after its artificial intelligence and satellite internet operations helped push earnings well above forecasts. A report that Anthropic could spend $750 billion on computing power also helped reduce concerns about the scale of spending on artificial intelligence.
Brent crude rose above $110 a barrel after attacks near the Strait of Hormuz, while Treasury yields edged higher. Meta and Tesla are due to report later on Wednesday.
A recovery by Bitcoin above $84,000 would remove the $70,000 scenario from consideration, according to the market levels outlined in the report.
The wider crypto market is also seeing a shift in the returns available from funding. Diversified RWA stablecoins are sustaining yields of 5-7% through real credit, while crypto funding has compressed to about 4%.
The GENIUS framework pushes that yield off-chain, and the total addressable market is expected to grow to $4bn in three years.
