Bitcoin climbed above $85,200 for the first time in more than eight months, but a key measure of US spot-market demand has moved below zero, raising questions about what is driving the latest rally.
The cryptocurrency rose by about 6% in 24 hours to reach an intraday high of $85,248. More than $260+ million in short positions were liquidated within 60 minutes, helping accelerate the move after bitcoin had previously struggled to break through the $82K level following a $7,000 recovery.
Despite the sharp rise, the Coinbase Premium Index did not follow the market higher. Onchain analytics firm Cryptoquant said the index had turned negative again, with its chart showing a reading of approximately -0.02 while Bitcoin was trading near $81,500.
The index compares bitcoin’s price on Coinbase, where it is traded against the US dollar, with its price on Binance, where it is traded against the tether stablecoin (USDT). Coinbase is widely used as an indicator of American institutional and dollar-based demand. A negative reading means buyers in the US are paying less than traders elsewhere.
That has been the prevailing pattern for much of 2026. In July, Bitcoin.com News reported that the index had remained below zero for 50 straight days, then the longest negative period on record. Cryptoquant’s data shows only brief periods of positive demand since then, including a short improvement in late August.
The latest figure is less negative than it was last week. On Sept. 15, the day the CLARITY Act failed in the Senate, the index fell to about -0.07%. That suggests selling pressure from US participants has eased, but it does not yet show a return to sustained buying.
Trader Fabius said the rebound “looks mostly driven by leverage + a short squeeze, not clean spot demand”. He also said derivatives trading had been running at four to seven times spot-market volume. The $260+ million liquidation event is consistent with that explanation, as forced buying by traders closing short positions can lift prices without attracting new long-term investors.
Cryptoquant had identified a similar split a week earlier. With Bitcoin near $77,600 on Sept. 14, its data showed a negative premium alongside a taker buy/sell ratio of 1.12, indicating aggressive leveraged buying. The firm’s stated bull-market confirmation level is a close above $81,700, the average closing price over the previous year.
Bitcoin has moved above that threshold during the session, but confirmation depends on a daily close. The premium index remains the other part of the test.
Bitcoin crossed $84,000 early on Monday after ending the previous week above its 50-week moving average.
The Federal Reserve raised its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4% on Sept. 16, its first increase in 1,148 days. The 10-year Treasury yield had also risen above 5% that week, conditions that are unlikely to encourage cautious US investors to quickly return to riskier assets.
A negative premium during a rally does not prove the move is false; it shows that longer-term US buyers have yet to confirm it.
