XRP’s recent recovery has not been enough to return its average long-term holder to profit, according to crypto analytics firm Santiment.
In a comparison published on 23 September, XRP recorded an average 11.75% loss among coins active over the past year. Dogecoin was the only other token in the five-coin sample with a negative result, at minus 19.26%.
Bitcoin, ether and chainlink were all marginally above zero.
Santiment used the 365-day market value to realised value (MVRV) measure, which compares the current value of coins that have moved within the past year with their value when they were acquired.
XRP rose above $1.60 on 22 September, while Santiment recorded 1,917 large transactions and 3,647 new wallets. However, the increase in its market price did not lift the coins included in the 365-day calculation back to their average acquisition value.
The firm regards a negative MVRV reading as a potentially favourable position if demand increases. Its reasoning is that holders already sitting on losses are less likely to sell in profit, reducing the immediate supply of coins available from profitable traders.
That measure does not, however, predict that the price will rise. A negative reading indicates only that the coins in the calculation are worth less on average than their recorded purchase value.
The minus 11.75% figure represents an aggregate unrealised loss across the relevant XRP holdings. It does not mean every individual holder is losing the same amount, and some holders may still be in profit.
Santiment can also calculate MVRV across shorter timeframes, but those results apply to different groups of coins. Its 30-day XRP figure in May showed an average loss of about 47%, based on coins active during that period.
The September reading covers 365 days, so the two percentages cannot be directly compared as evidence of recovery among the same traders.
XRP’s price rebound also followed a broader decline. By 1 September, the token was down about 27% for the year, meaning someone who bought at a higher level could still face a paper loss despite the subsequent rise.
XRP climbed nearly 9% to $1.54 as veteran trader Peter Brandt published a chart pointing to an eventual $5.40.
Price performance and activity on the XRP Ledger measure different things. XRP is the native asset of the XRP Ledger, where it supports transactions and other network functions. Transaction activity can increase even while the average acquisition value of recently active XRP remains above its current market price.
Santiment’s 23 September comparison showed that this gap remained for XRP and dogecoin, while bitcoin, ether and chainlink were slightly above break-even.
