The failed Senate vote on the CLARITY Act has cut the Polymarket probability of the bill becoming law this year to 5%, from 15% on the day of the vote. But, as it stands, the legislation may have limited impact on the price of bitcoin, which already benefits from many of the protections and regulatory decisions it would introduce.
Bitcoin fell towards $75,000 on Tuesday, a 1% decline over 24 hours, after the Senate failed to invoke cloture on the bill. It was unclear whether the move reflected the vote or expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve would raise interest rates on Wednesday.
Bitcoin has not consistently followed changing expectations over the CLARITY Act during the year. It has sometimes responded to developments in Congress, but at other times moved independently, suggesting the legislation may not be a direct driver of its price.
The bill would establish federal rules for crypto asset markets, including which tokens are overseen by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and which come under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). It would also define what banks and exchanges can do.
Although bitcoin is not specifically named, regulators already treat it as a digital commodity. Under the bill, that means a blockchain-based asset that people can own and transact without an intermediary.
Bitcoin has also already gained access to important products and regulatory recognition. Spot bitcoin ETFs were approved in January 2024 and have become a significant part of the BTC market. In March 2026, the SEC and CFTC formally confirmed bitcoin’s status as a commodity, supporting products such as perpetual futures contracts on a U.S.-regulated exchange linked to its spot price.
Several prominent figures have therefore played down the bill’s importance to bitcoin. Strategy’s Michael Saylor said in August: “Bitcoin doesn’t need CLARITY. America needs clarity.” He nevertheless supports the legislation and said: “Bitcoin will succeed with or without legislation.”
Anthony Pompliano has similarly argued that bitcoin does not need the Act, while Arthur Hayes, co-founder of the Maelstrom fund and BitMEX, said: “Bitcoin didn’t need the Clarity Act from 2009 until the present, it doesn’t need it to the future.”
Jake Chervinsky, CEO of Hyperliquid Policy Center, said: “Crypto will be fine without the Clarity Act. We are lucky to have two agencies, the SEC and CFTC, with all of the excellent staff and authority they need to do the job.”
The legislation could still help adoption by confirming that banks may hold bitcoin for customers and provide lending, payments and derivatives services. However, banks would only be allowed to hold it for purposes including fees, risk management and settlement, meaning the main barrier to banks buying bitcoin would remain.
Under the global Basel standard, banks must hold at least $1 million in capital against $1 million of bitcoin. The U.S. has not adopted that rule, and its regulators have yet to agree their own requirements. The Basel Committee is reviewing the standard, while Bitcoin industry lobbyists and senators are also seeking changes that could influence demand more than the CLARITY Act.
If signed this year, most provisions would not take effect until 360 days later, meaning little practical change before late 2027. Its greatest value may be making current policies permanent, particularly bitcoin’s commodity status and banks’ permissions.
That protection could become important after the November 2028 U.S. presidential election if a less supportive administration takes office. The Act could also improve safety and clarity for customers and protect Bitcoin developers, miners and dormant self-custodied BTC from attempts to seize “abandoned” coins.
Altcoins such as XRP may benefit more, although clearer rules could divert capital from bitcoin. Regulatory risks are considered more significant from January 2029, when the next president enters the White House, while developments such as the Basel rules and global market conditions may have a greater effect on BTC.
Following the failed vote, bitcoin analyst Willy Woo said: “I see the US selling with the failed Clarity Act (on Coinbase). Meanwhile, the more dominant global offshore continues accumulating (on Binance). Bullish.”
Long-term forecasts from U.S. industry figures still suggest bitcoin could reach hundreds of thousands of dollars or even $1 million by 2030, regardless of whether the CLARITY Act becomes law.
