As the 2024 presidential race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris intensifies, many believe it could be the most pivotal election since Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s 1940 re-election, which decisively influenced World War II’s outcome. With polls tightening, Harris has a path to victory, but Trump remains favored despite his contentious and often divisive rhetoric.
The Polarizing Persona of Trump
Donald Trump is known for his unpredictable nature and lack of a coherent ideology. His political style, characterized by narcissism and opportunism, often leads to sudden policy shifts and transactional deal-making. This has resulted in numerous instances where his tough talk has not translated into action. For example, despite initially dismissing digital currencies, Trump recently declared his ambition for the US to dominate the crypto market after significant donations from crypto executives to his campaign.
Questioning Trump’s Stance on China
Despite his character flaws, some security experts believe Trump will take a hard line on China. However, there are serious doubts about his commitment to defending Taiwan. In a Bloomberg interview, Trump criticized Taiwan’s success in high-end chip manufacturing and suggested that the island would need to pay for US protection. Additionally, his reversal on policies such as export controls on China’s ZTE and opposition to a TikTok ban following large campaign contributions further fuels skepticism about his stance.
The Impact of Populism on Policy
Trump’s decision-making process is often seen as driven by self-interest rather than principle. Noah Smith, an American blogger, questions Trump’s susceptibility to policy deals with wealthy donors, raising concerns about potential deals with China. Trump’s record on tariffs also highlights his inconsistent approach. Although he imposed punitive tariffs on China in 2018, he later halted further increases in exchange for a promise from Beijing to buy more US agricultural goods, a promise that China failed to fulfill without repercussions.
Divisions Within the Republican Party
Uncertainty surrounding Trump’s policies is compounded by divisions within the Republican Party. The divide between Reagan traditionalists and national conservatives creates a complex landscape, making it difficult to predict the party’s stance on various issues. Figures like Oren Cass and Senator Josh Hawley represent differing views within the party, further complicating the political dynamics.
The Global Stakes of the Election
The outcome of the 2024 election will have significant global implications. Key issues include the ongoing Ukraine conflict, the reconstruction of post-war Gaza, China’s ambitions, climate change, and other pressing challenges that require presidential leadership. Domestic issues such as the opioid crisis, migration, terrorism, and tech supremacy also have international dimensions that will demand attention.
Trump’s Global Engagement
Trump is not an isolationist; his “America First” approach means he will engage with the world, driven by his ego and ambition. His track record suggests that his actions will continue to be unpredictable, with potential surprises in store for both his supporters and detractors.
As the election draws near, it is crucial to focus on Trump’s actions rather than his words. His second term, if realized, may not align with the expectations of either his supporters or his critics. Alan Dupont, CEO of the Cognoscenti Group and a non-resident fellow at the Lowy Institute, emphasizes the importance of paying attention to Trump’s deeds, which will shape the future of the US and its role on the global stage.
