Toncoin, the cryptocurrency closely associated with Telegram founder Pavel Durov, has seen its price stabilize following a sharp 27% drop to $5.04 after Durov’s recent arrest. Despite this temporary steadiness, market analysis suggests that Toncoin’s troubles may be far from over, with several indicators pointing to the potential for further downturns.
Toncoin’s price plunged below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages (MAs) on the daily chart, signaling a sustained loss of momentum. The 50-day MA reflects short- to mid-term market sentiment, while the 200-day MA captures the long-term trend. Falling below both averages is a strong indication that Toncoin may struggle to regain upward momentum in the near future.
Moreover, Toncoin is now on the brink of experiencing a “death cross,” a technical pattern where the 50-day MA crosses below the 200-day MA. This bearish signal often precedes significant declines, adding to concerns about Toncoin’s future performance.
On the weekly chart, Toncoin is trading below the middle line of the Bollinger Bands and is nearing the lower band, indicating that the asset is underperforming relative to its recent average. Trading close to the lower band suggests that the price is approaching the lower end of its expected range, a potential sign of oversold conditions.
The Stochastic RSI, another key indicator on Toncoin’s weekly chart, remains in the oversold region, sitting below the 20 level. This suggests that selling pressure has been dominant, potentially leading to exhaustion. However, despite a recent bullish crossover, which initially signaled a possible reversal, the downward momentum has resumed, as evidenced by a subsequent bearish crossover. This indicates that selling pressure is intensifying rather than diminishing.
Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator on Toncoin’s weekly chart has confirmed a bearish trend. The MACD line has crossed below the signal line, and the distance between the two lines is widening, as shown by the expanding histogram. This signals that downward momentum is not only persisting but also growing stronger.
The Directional Movement Index (DMI) further supports the bearish outlook for Toncoin. The -DI line, representing the strength of downward movement, remains above the +DI line, indicating stronger bearish momentum. Meanwhile, the Average Directional Index (ADX), which measures the overall strength of the trend, continues to decline, signaling a loss of bullish momentum. Together, these indicators suggest that any potential recovery for Toncoin may be delayed.
Beyond the technical indicators, the broader macroeconomic environment also poses challenges for Toncoin and the wider cryptocurrency market. Historically, September has been a difficult month for cryptocurrencies, with the market recording losses in most years since 2013. On average, the market has experienced a 4.51% decline during this month.
Adding to these concerns is the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on September 18th. With no likelihood of a rate cut and a high probability of a rate hike, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s recent remarks signal a shift in monetary policy. Cryptocurrencies typically react negatively during periods of interest rate hikes, which could further pressure Toncoin and other digital assets.
While history does not guarantee future outcomes, the combination of technical indicators and macroeconomic factors presents a challenging landscape for Toncoin. Investors should be cautious as the uncertain market conditions make investments in Toncoin, as well as other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, particularly risky in the coming months.
