Bitcoin’s latest rally has prompted Standard Chartered to warn that its official $100,000 year-end forecast may be too cautious, with the cryptocurrency now potentially capable of retesting its all-time high of $126,000.
Bitcoin was trading at about $76,844 at the time of the report, having gained roughly 24% in seven days, according to CoinGecko data. That left it around 39% below Standard Chartered’s current target and about 64% short of the record level.
Geoff Kendrick, the bank’s global head of digital asset research, said the recent advance had been driven primarily by the liquidation of short positions. He added that recovering demand for US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could provide further support if the rally continues.
“For the first time this year there is now a risk my end year forecast (of USD100k) is too low,” Kendrick wrote in a Friday note shared with crypto media.
He said Bitcoin could move back towards its previous record before the end of the year, with the recovery potentially gathering further pace after 6 October.
That date is closely linked to Bitcoin’s 2025 market peak. The cryptocurrency entered a prolonged decline after reaching that high, with the weakness continuing into 2026. Kendrick’s latest assessment therefore focuses on whether Bitcoin can maintain its momentum after passing the anniversary of the previous peak.
Standard Chartered has not officially replaced its $100,000 forecast with a $126,000 target. Instead, Kendrick identified the all-time high as a level Bitcoin could revisit if its current recovery strengthens, while acknowledging that the bank’s existing prediction may prove conservative.
The latest view represents a marked change from the bank’s position during Bitcoin’s June sell-off. On 4 June, Standard Chartered retained its $100,000 forecast even after Bitcoin had fallen by more than 15% in a week and briefly approached $61,000.
Kendrick said some of the factors behind that decline were beginning to ease. He also expected Strategy to resume buying Bitcoin and noted that liquidations during the sell-off remained below those seen during some earlier market crashes.
Nine days later, Standard Chartered again maintained its forecast after Bitcoin fell towards $59,000 before recovering to about $63,500. Kendrick described the move towards $59,000 as the “likely low” of the cycle, attributing the decline to forced selling, weak ETF flows and liquidity stress.
Bitcoin has since climbed more than $17,000 above that June low.
ETF demand is now one of the key indicators being monitored by Kendrick. He said inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs had begun to recover after weaker institutional interest contributed to market pressure earlier in the year.
Stronger ETF inflows could create a source of buying that is not dependent solely on traders being forced to close short positions. Lower open interest across the market could also leave room for investors to rebuild positions as prices rise.
Kendrick said the combination of relatively low positioning and higher prices could draw traders back into the market without immediately creating the crowded leverage that can make a rally vulnerable to rapid liquidation.
ETF activity had already improved during Bitcoin’s July recovery. On 3 July, spot Bitcoin ETF inflows ended a 10-day run of outflows after US-listed funds recorded net inflows of $221.7m on 2 July, according to SoSoValue data cited by crypto.news.
Bitcoin was trading near $61,700 during that recovery, having only recently moved back above the area below $60,000.
By 21 July, Bitcoin had risen above $65,000 as spot ETF inflows extended to five consecutive sessions. BTC was then trading at about $65,245, up roughly 5% over seven days, while $70,000 remained an important resistance level.
The latest rally has taken Bitcoin well beyond both of those price points.
Earlier this year, Standard Chartered cut its Bitcoin forecast significantly. In a report published on 12 February, Kendrick reduced the bank’s year-end target from $150,000 to $100,000. Its Ether forecast was also lowered, from $7,500 to $4,000.
At the time, Kendrick expected Bitcoin could fall towards $50,000 before recovering later in the year, while Ether could decline as far as $1,400. The downgrade was linked to ETF outflows, weaker macroeconomic conditions, lower expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts and changes in investor positioning.
Bitcoin did not reach the predicted $50,000 low. Its sharpest fall instead took it into the upper-$50,000 range before buyers returned.
Despite continued volatility in July, Standard Chartered did not cut its forecast again. On 10 July, the bank reaffirmed its $100,000 prediction while Bitcoin traded above $64,000.
Kendrick said concerns about Strategy’s changing approach to its Bitcoin treasury had contributed to some of the market pressure, but Standard Chartered did not believe those developments warranted a change to its longer-term view.
Bitcoin repeatedly struggled around $65,000 during the early part of the recovery. On 16 July, it failed to hold above that level after briefly reaching approximately $65,470 following softer US inflation data.
Selling by large holders, known as whales, and profit-taking by longer-term investors limited the move. Liquidations increased after Bitcoin fell below about $64,400, and the cryptocurrency returned to the same resistance area several times before eventually breaking higher.
A rally on 21 July took Bitcoin as high as $66,965 before sellers emerged near $67,000. ETF inflows, progress on US crypto legislation and short liquidations helped drive the advance, although higher oil prices linked to the US-Iran conflict restricted the rise.
Those July price levels are now more than $10,000 below Bitcoin’s latest market price.
Other market observers have also begun assessing whether the 2026 bear market may have ended. Swan Bitcoin chief executive Cory Klippsten said Bitcoin could form a bottom in October, while 10x Research founder Markus Thielen said an August close above $63,000 could confirm a bear-market bottom.
Bitcoin moved well above that threshold before the end of August, although Thielen’s view depends specifically on where the cryptocurrency finishes the month.
During July’s decline, Bitcoin repeatedly traded between about $62,000 and $65,000. On 17 July, it fell below $63,000 as renewed US-Iran military action weighed on risk assets. US spot Bitcoin ETFs nevertheless recorded $79.15m in net inflows during the previous session.
Standard Chartered’s official year-end forecast remains $100,000. However, Kendrick’s latest assessment suggests the bank now sees a realistic possibility of Bitcoin returning to its $126,000 record before 2026 ends if the recovery continues to build momentum.
