Prediction-market traders are increasingly betting that Congress will not complete work on the CLARITY Act until 2027, after Senate leaders failed to begin the procedural process required for a vote before the August recess.
On Kalshi, the probability of the legislation taking effect before 1 July 2027 fell by eight percentage points to 41% on Tuesday. The move indicates growing expectations that the process will extend beyond 2026, although the contract does not measure passage during 2026 alone.
The chance of the bill becoming law before 1 October 2027 stood at 58%, while the odds of enactment before 1 January 2028 rose to 65%. The latest prices suggest traders still expect the legislation to progress, but over a longer timeframe.
More than $5.42m has been traded across the Kalshi market. The change in expectations came after another day passed without Senate Majority Leader John Thune filing a cloture motion, meaning the chamber could not begin the formal countdown towards a procedural vote.
The Senate’s floor schedule for 4 August did not list H.R. 3633. Its official list of pending cloture motions contained two unrelated measures, and no motion covering the CLARITY Act had been announced by the end of Tuesday’s session.
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan identified Wednesday, 5 August, as the practical deadline for Senate leaders to file cloture if they are to preserve the possibility of holding a vote on Friday.
Under Senate Rule XXII, a cloture motion must carry the signatures of 16 senators. A vote normally takes place one hour after the Senate convenes on the following calendar day after the motion is filed. Even if cloture succeeds, the bill could still face up to 30 hours of debate.
That timetable leaves lawmakers with little time to settle their remaining disagreements before the August recess. Journalist Eleanor Terrett said Thune’s decision was partly linked to procedural complications surrounding a continuing resolution, uncertainty about the level of support and provisions that remain unresolved.
Republicans occupy 53 of the Senate’s 100 seats. If every Republican backed the measure, it would still require at least seven Democratic votes to reach the 60-vote threshold needed for cloture.
Lawmakers are also discussing amendments designed to protect state and tribal authority over sports betting and casino-related markets.
At a Senate Indian Affairs Committee roundtable on Tuesday, Indian Gaming Association Vice Chairman Tehassi Hill said sports and casino prediction markets should continue to be governed by state and tribal gaming laws. That view conflicts with interpretations under which those contracts would fall exclusively under the authority of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Supporters of the proposed amendment see the CLARITY Act as a possible way to define the boundaries of the CFTC’s authority over prediction markets. However, including the issue in a wider crypto market structure package could make an already challenging bipartisan negotiation even more difficult.
Separate talks on ethics provisions and the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act also remain unresolved as lawmakers prepare to leave Washington for the recess.
Hougan said the digital asset industry could continue to expand even if the Senate does not act before the recess.
“Crypto will be fine,” Hougan wrote in an 4 August investor memo.
He said rulemaking by the Securities and Exchange Commission could provide an alternative path towards regulatory clarity, while banks and other traditional financial companies continue to increase their digital asset operations. His comments represent an industry outlook, rather than a confirmed regulatory outcome.
Failure to meet the immediate Senate deadline would not end the CLARITY Act. It would, however, postpone efforts to create a statutory division of authority between the SEC and CFTC, leaving US crypto companies more dependent on agency rules and existing interpretations of enforcement policy.
Kalshi’s latest pricing reflects that distinction. Traders have not abandoned the possibility of market structure legislation, but they are increasingly expecting any final agreement to arrive in 2027 rather than before the end of 2026.
