Bitcoin’s hopes of returning to $100,000 before 2027 are fading, with prediction-market traders putting just a 27% chance on the cryptocurrency reaching that level this year.
Polymarket participants gave Bitcoin only a 2% probability of touching $100,000 before November, while Kalshi’s October forecast stood at $87,000. Bitcoin was trading at about $83,416 on Tuesday, 13 October, leaving traders pricing in a greater likelihood of a move towards $80,000 than an immediate return to six figures.
Polymarket’s 2026 Bitcoin market has recorded approximately $75.1m in trading volume. Its contracts give Bitcoin a 64% chance of reaching $90,000 before the end of the year, but that falls to 43% at $95,000 and 27% at $100,000.
The probabilities weaken further at higher prices, with $110,000 assigned a 12% chance and $120,000 just 7%.
Traders have also assessed the potential downside. Bitcoin has a 37% probability of touching $70,000 before 2027, while the odds are 23% for $65,000 and 15% for $60,000.
Those markets measure whether Bitcoin reaches a specified price before the contract expires, rather than where it finishes the year.
Short-term outlook remains cautious
Polymarket’s October market, which has attracted roughly $6.3m in volume, gives Bitcoin an 80% chance of touching $85,000 before November. The probability drops to 50% at $87,500, 32% at $90,000 and 10% at $95,000.
Based on a reference price of $83,416, recorded at 18:45 ET on 13 October, traders gave Bitcoin a 57% chance of reaching $80,000 before the market expires on 31 October, 2026. The probability of falling to $77,500 was 33%, while a move to $75,000 was priced at 21%.
By comparison, the chance of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 during October was only 2%. Traders therefore saw a higher probability of a $7,500 decline to $75,000 than of a $6,584 rise to $90,000.
Kalshi’s October Bitcoin forecast was $87,000, approximately $2,970 lower than its previous reading. Its $789,873 October event put the chance of Bitcoin exceeding $87,500 at 49%, with $90,000 at 35% and $92,500 at 22%.
Kalshi’s separate year-end market, which has generated more than $41.3m in volume, projected a Bitcoin price of $83,554. Its settlement brackets assigned a 14% probability to a finish between $80,000 and $84,999.99, compared with 12.7% for the $85,000 to $89,999.99 range.
Longer-term expectations are more positive. Polymarket’s milestone market gives Bitcoin a 48% chance of reaching $100,000 by 31 March, 2027, rising to 58% by June and 70% by 31 December, 2027.
Prediction-market prices represent collective expectations rather than guarantees and can change quickly as new information emerges.
