The National Football League has called on the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to impose tougher limits on sports-based prediction markets, warning that the regulator’s current plans do not sufficiently protect the integrity of games or consumers.
In a detailed submission to CFTC Chair Michael Selig, sent on 27 July and obtained by The Closing Line, the NFL said the draft federal framework for event contracts is “useful” but must be significantly strengthened when it comes to sport-related products.
“The NFL’s highest priority is preserving the integrity of our games,” the league wrote in the letter, published by The Closing Line, adding that safeguarding that integrity is also essential for the “stable and orderly administration” of contracts linked to NFL fixtures and for shielding traders who use those markets.
Push for tighter limits on sports-linked contracts
The letter was filed as the CFTC reviews public feedback on proposed changes to Rule 40.11, which would create a nationwide system for assessing event contracts tied to gaming, war, terrorism, assassination and unlawful activities. The consultation, which drew responses from sports leagues, exchanges and crypto industry organisations, closed on 27 July.
According to The Closing Line, the NFL urged the CFTC to impose stricter controls on sports contracts that could be swayed by a single participant, hinge heavily on officiating calls or involve outcomes that might become known to some parties before they are public.
The league also pressed the regulator to narrow its definition of which contracts should be permitted. The NFL argued that the CFTC needs to draw a clearer line between legitimate event contracts and arrangements that, in practice, amount to gambling, the publication reported.
Another key concern was the CFTC’s proposed 10-day review period for newly self-certified contracts. The NFL is said to have warned that such a short window risks allowing contracts to remain tradable before regulators have enough time to evaluate them properly.
Awards-based markets came under particular scrutiny. The league questioned why contracts linked to accolades such as “Offensive Player of the Year” should be allowed merely because the outcome is decided by a voting panel.
Integrity safeguards and betting restrictions
On market integrity, the NFL asked for explicit rules on the handling of material non-public information, arguing that clear standards are needed for how such information can or cannot be used in trading.
The league also proposed mandatory, league-specific lists of individuals who are barred from betting, rather than leaving each platform to design its own monitoring and restriction systems.
The letter reiterated several positions the NFL has advocated previously, including a ban on margin trading in sports event contracts, tighter advertising rules and a minimum participation age of 21.
CFTC moves to formalise prediction market oversight
The NFL’s latest intervention comes as the CFTC shifts towards a more structured regulatory regime for prediction markets rather than relying on blanket prohibitions.
Earlier this month, the agency’s Division of Market Oversight issued its second compliance advisory of the year, cautioning exchanges against filing broad, template-style self-certifications that cover large bundles of event contracts. Instead, designated contract markets must submit contract-specific terms, settlement mechanisms, data sources and legal analysis for every product they wish to list.
The advisory, dated 24 July, kept the self-certification process intact. Exchanges can still introduce qualifying event contracts without prior Commission approval as long as they comply with the Commodity Exchange Act and CFTC rules. However, the regulator warned that submissions covering open-ended groups of products without sufficient detail make it difficult to assess settlement procedures, manipulation risks and legal compliance.
That guidance followed a March advisory reminding exchanges that they act as front-line regulators and must, before listing any product, determine whether a contract is vulnerable to manipulation and whether its settlement sources are reliable.
Three-step review proposal and legal disputes
At the same time, the CFTC is proposing amendments to Rule 40.11 that would introduce a three-step review for contracts linked to activities identified in the Commodity Exchange Act. Under the plan, regulators would first decide whether a product is an event contract, then examine whether its settlement depends on activities such as gaming or unlawful conduct, and finally apply public-interest criteria to decide if the contract should be allowed.
Legal analysis from Ropes & Gray, cited by crypto.news, said the proposal would assess contracts individually rather than banning whole categories in advance. It would also distinguish games from contests and place elections and award events outside the proposed definition of gaming.
Unlike the National Hockey League and Major League Baseball, which have struck partnerships with prediction market platforms including Kalshi and Polymarket, the NFL has consistently pressed for more stringent regulation of sports-related event contracts.
In March, the league wrote to Kalshi and Polymarket asking them to withdraw several sports contract offerings, maintaining its stance that sports prediction markets require stronger integrity protections.
Federal approach challenged by states
Under Chair Michael Selig, the CFTC has defended the status of federally regulated prediction markets against state-level challenges while pushing ahead with formal rulemaking for the sector. Since his appointment in 2025, Selig has supported treating eligible prediction markets as legitimate derivatives under federal oversight, rather than as gambling products regulated by individual states.
Recent court filings show the Commission defending that position in litigation against Minnesota and winning. The CFTC argued that Minnesota law conflicts with the federal derivatives framework set out in the Commodity Exchange Act.
Kalshi and Polymarket have lodged similar applications seeking temporary relief while their own cases move forward. The outcome could decide whether federally regulated prediction markets continue to operate nationally or come under a patchwork of state gambling rules.
Rapid expansion of prediction markets
The NFL’s comments arrive against a backdrop of rapid growth in prediction markets tied not only to sport but also to politics, economics and current affairs.
CFTC data cited in its March rulemaking notice showed that registered exchanges listed, on average, around five event contracts per year between 2006 and 2020. That figure rose to 131 contracts in 2021 and then to roughly 1,600 new contracts during 2025.
More recent testimony referenced by the regulator estimated that CFTC-regulated prediction markets processed more than $25bn in trading volume during 2025. The same testimony said daily listings on one major platform increased from about 1,600 contracts in April 2025 to around 162,000 by April 2026.
