XRP would need to rise about 9.8% from $1.55 to reach $1.70 before 11:59 p.m. ET on 30 September, but traders on Kalshi currently assign the move odds of roughly one in three.
Kalshi’s September XRP market shows a forecast of 1.7, up 0.1 on the day. However, the contract paying out if XRP finishes above $1.70 was trading at 32 cents, down from 36 cents a day earlier. Each contract pays $1 if the target is reached.
About 46,650 contracts have traded at the $1.70 level since the market opened on 1 September, with approximately 10,870 still open. The $1.80 contract was priced at 19 cents, while the $2.00 and $2.10 contracts were each trading near 7 cents.
XRP has already moved through several of the month’s lower targets. The $1.40 contract settled as a yes on 3 September, followed by the $1.50 level on 21 September and the $1.60 level on 22 September.
The recovery came after XRP fell to about $1.26 in mid-September. In Kalshi’s companion low-price market, the contract predicting XRP would remain below $1.30 paid out on 15 September.
XRP then reached $1.64 on 23 September, its highest level of the month, before retreating towards $1.50. Despite the rebound, its average long-term trader remains down 11.75% over 365 days, according to Santiment, as reported recently by Bitcoin.com News.
A move of this size is not unprecedented for XRP. The cryptocurrency rose from $1.41 to $1.61 between 21 and 22 September.
There is also a specific condition attached to Kalshi’s settlement. The market uses CF Benchmarks’ XRP reference rate, calculated from a per-minute average that removes the highest and lowest 20% of prices. A brief spike on one exchange will not be sufficient; XRP must remain above the threshold for long enough to lift the trimmed average.
Market conditions have provided limited support. Bitcoin has remained near $84,000 after failing to break through $87,000 this week, while XRP’s declines have broadly followed bitcoin’s movements. Traders are also monitoring the $157 million in XRP stolen during the Bitget hack, which is held in wallets that nobody can freeze.
While the September market has cooled, expectations for 2026 have strengthened. The Kalshi contract for XRP rising above $2.00 in 2026 increased to 59 cents from 53 cents a day earlier. The $2.50 contract rose to 33 cents from 26 cents, while the $3.00 contract advanced to 24 cents from 19 cents.
The pattern mirrors a split seen earlier this week in Kalshi’s bitcoin market, where the odds of bitcoin reaching $100,000 by the end of the year increased as September’s $90,000 outlook weakened.
US spot XRP exchange-traded funds recorded inflows of $22.65m on 25 September, led by Bitwise. The buying has not yet pushed XRP back above $1.60, leaving the next week especially significant for the market.
