A study by three Vietnamese researchers suggests that higher carbon prices in the European Union may be linked to Bitcoin mining activity shifting operationally towards Russia, where there is no equivalent carbon-pricing structure.
The research found a positive relationship between the cost of carbon allowances in the EU and carbon emissions from Russia’s power grid. It concluded that some mining operations may switch from European facilities to Russian sites when both Bitcoin prices and EU carbon allowance prices rise, helping companies protect or increase their profit margins.
The study, titled “Does Carbon Pricing Displace Crypto-Mining Emissions? Quantile Evidence on Carbon Leakage from EU27, Russian and Rest-of-World Power Grids”, was written by Pham Ngoc Toan, Le Tran Trung Hieu and Nguyen Vu Trung Nguyen.
The researchers analysed daily power-sector emissions across the EU, Russia and the rest of the world between 2019 and 2025. They compared those figures with Bitcoin’s daily closing prices to examine whether carbon pricing in Europe could be contributing to changes in the location of crypto-mining activity.
Their findings indicated a statistical link between carbon pricing in the EU and emissions in Russia. The relationship was strongest during off-peak periods, when both Bitcoin values and European carbon allowance prices were higher.
However, the same pattern was not found when EU emissions were compared with emissions in the rest of the world. The researchers said that distinction made the Russia-related finding more significant.
The EU imposes controls and costs on carbon emissions, while Russia does not operate a comparable carbon-pricing system. Mining Bitcoin, which requires substantial amounts of electricity, may therefore be more financially attractive in Russia when European carbon costs increase.
The study did not establish that mining equipment had been physically moved from the EU to Russia. Instead, it suggested the trend could be operational. For example, companies that own or control hardware in both jurisdictions could switch off machines in Europe and activate equipment in Russia, depending on which location offers the better returns.
The researchers also highlighted a number of limitations. They said the relationship identified in the data was affected by China’s ban on Bitcoin mining in May 2021, while other potentially relevant factors were not included in the analysis.
Russia’s own restrictions could also limit the scope for such a shift. From 2025, the Russian government introduced a ban on crypto mining in certain regions. An expansion of that ban to Moscow was approved this year, potentially making it more difficult for mining companies to move activity operationally into Russia.
The findings also challenge expectations about the environmental impact of China’s crackdown on crypto mining. Contrary to some predictions, researchers have alleged that Beijing’s action increased Bitcoin’s carbon emissions, as mining activity moved elsewhere and continued to rely heavily on carbon-intensive electricity sources.
The latest study does not claim that all mining has relocated to Russia, but argues that EU carbon costs may be one factor influencing where companies operate their equipment.
