Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo believes authorities have a 20% to 40% chance of recovering some of the bitcoin stolen through a vulnerability affecting Coldcard wallets, although any successful recovery could take several years.
Woo posted on X on 2 August, saying investigators may eventually trace and reclaim part of the stolen funds. He encouraged affected holders to follow advice from JAN3 chief executive Samson Mow while authorities continue monitoring the movement of the bitcoin.
Woo supported his assessment by sharing a table of major cryptocurrency thefts where law enforcement seizures, negotiated settlements, exchange intervention or bankruptcy proceedings led to partial or substantial recoveries.
The examples included approximately $6.4bn reclaimed from the 2016 Bitfinex hack, $610m returned after the Poly Network exploit, $200m recovered from Euler Finance, and $275m restored following the Kucoin hack. The table also referred to an approximately 20% distribution made to Mt. Gox creditors.
Those cases show that stolen cryptocurrency can remain traceable long after an attack. Recoveries have often taken months or years rather than happening immediately.
Transactions on public blockchains remain visible, according to the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), allowing investigators to follow the movement of digital assets over an extended period. The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) recovered more than 94,000 bitcoin linked to the Bitfinex hack almost six years after the theft, underlining how long-running investigations can lead to significant seizures.
Mow has issued five recommendations for Coldcard users affected by the vulnerability. He advised them to record wallet details, report the theft to police, follow efforts to track the stolen funds, keep their hardware wallets and seed phrases, and avoid anyone offering paid recovery services.
He said preserving evidence could help victims prove ownership if the stolen bitcoin reaches an exchange and is subsequently frozen.
Victims have also been warned about follow-up scams. People who lose cryptocurrency are frequently targeted by impersonators and fraudulent recovery companies that claim they can retrieve the stolen assets. The FBI has cautioned that these services may demand upfront payments, recovery phrases or wallet credentials while offering no genuine prospect of recovery.
Mow urged victims not to disclose seed phrases or personal information to people claiming to provide recovery assistance. His warning reflects established advice on protecting against phishing and impersonation.
Federal agencies have previously recovered stolen cryptocurrency through coordinated tracing operations and asset seizures. The U.S. Secret Service recovered more than $25m across five investigations involving investment fraud, account takeovers and related schemes.
Coinkite said the Coldcard problem involved reduced entropy in seeds generated by certain affected firmware versions. Users who created vulnerable wallets were instructed to install corrected firmware and migrate their funds, rather than relying on a software update alone.
Mow has also renewed his recommendation that bitcoin holders avoid relying on a single device or manufacturer. He supports multisignature wallets built using hardware from multiple manufacturers, reducing the risk associated with one point of failure.
Other protective measures include verified backups, storing recovery material offline and testing restoration procedures before depositing significant funds. Even multi-device arrangements require each signing key to be protected independently, with reliable recovery access maintained across separate locations.
The theft was made possible when an attacker exploited weak seeds generated by certain Coldcard hardware wallets, taking bitcoin worth roughly tens of millions. The subsequent tracking and any potential recovery are expected to depend on preserved evidence, blockchain analysis and the ability of authorities or exchanges to identify and restrict the stolen assets.
