The CLARITY Act’s prospects of receiving a weekend vote in the US Senate have weakened after leaders took no procedural steps on Thursday to advance the proposed crypto market structure legislation.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune did not file cloture on the motion to proceed to the CLARITY Act on Wednesday. That left the bill without the procedural countdown required before an initial vote can take place.
The U.S. Senate Daily Press said the chamber would reconvene at 10:00 a.m. Thursday and continue considering a group of nominations under Senate Resolution 817. Roll-call votes were expected, although none had been scheduled.
Thune did file cloture on a substitute amendment to H.R. 6500, the underlying continuing-resolution vehicle, as well as on the motion to proceed to S. 4668 and Todd Blanche’s nomination to become attorney general. S. 4668 is the Protect College Sports Act of 2026.
The CLARITY Act was not included in that list.
Without a cloture filing, Senate leaders cannot begin the usual process of restricting debate and moving the bill towards consideration on the floor. Its omission made a procedural vote before or during the weekend increasingly unlikely, even if senators remain in Washington beyond Friday.
The delay came as Republicans, Democrats and the White House continued negotiations over provisions that remain unresolved.
Sen. Thom Tillis told reporters that administration officials had started examining parts of the proposed language. Restrictions involving senior federal officials remain among the biggest obstacles to a deal.
Lawmakers have also been discussing measures relating to illicit finance, decentralised finance, stablecoin rewards and the authority of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
The Senate would need 60 votes to invoke cloture and move the legislation forward. Republicans do not have enough votes to meet that threshold without Democratic backing, meaning a bipartisan agreement would be required before the measure could be brought to the floor.
Even if negotiators settle the disputed issues, the bill would still have to compete for time with government funding legislation, nominations and other measures already in the Senate’s procedural queue.
Sen. Cynthia Lummis has continued to push for a vote before the August recess. The Wyoming Republican said earlier this week that lawmakers could stay in Washington through the weekend.
“I don’t think we’ll be leaving on Friday. I think we’ll go into the weekend,” Lummis said.
Lummis has previously said Thune had reserved space for the legislation on the Senate agenda for several weeks. Her remarks, however, reflected her expectation that the bill would be considered rather than confirming that leadership had formally scheduled a procedural vote.
Negotiators have been working on the measure for nearly 11 months. Lummis said she had recently concentrated on provisions concerning the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as lawmakers tried to bridge differences between the two parties.
She has argued that Congress needs to establish clearer federal oversight of digital assets to stop crypto companies from relocating their operations outside the United States.
Confidence falls
Prediction-market traders have grown increasingly sceptical that the legislation will pass Congress this year.
Polymarket put the probability of the CLARITY Act being signed into law in 2026 at about 17% on Thursday. That represented a 48% decline over the period shown in the supplied chart. The contract has recorded more than $5m in cumulative trading volume.
The odds had been above 70% at several points earlier in the year, before falling through June and July. They dropped more sharply as negotiations remained unresolved and the crowded Senate calendar reduced the time available for the legislation.
The Polymarket contract will resolve “Yes” only if H.R. 3633 passes both chambers of Congress and is signed by the president by 31 December.
A bipartisan agreement could revive the bill after the recess. The Senate would then still need to complete its procedural votes, consider amendments and approve the legislation.
Any changes to the version passed by the House of Representatives could also require further action in the House before the bill could reach the president.
