Waiting for bitcoin to fall by 30% before buying would have resulted in paying more than the original price in 61% of historical examples, according to an analysis of 216 market highs.
Adam Livingston, vice-president of investments at Strive Inc. (Nasdaq: ASST), a bitcoin treasury company, examined each new 52-week closing high between January 2017 and October 2025. His test then assumed that the buyer delayed the purchase until bitcoin had fallen by a set percentage from a later peak.
In the 30% pullback scenario, successful waits produced a median discount of 19% compared with the initial high. However, when the strategy failed, the eventual purchase price was a median 76% higher than the price originally rejected.
Livingston published the findings in a post on X on 27 September. His analysis highlights that a 30% fall does not necessarily return bitcoin to an earlier level. The decline is measured from a subsequent peak, which may have been reached after the market had risen substantially.
The midpoint of the waiting period for a 30% fall was 134 days, although some declines took as long as 881 days to occur. By then, the price could still be well above the earlier high.
One example began with bitcoin at $12,300 in August 2020. Applying the 30% pullback rule resulted in a notional purchase at $43,580 – approximately 254% higher than the starting price.
Smaller falls arrived more quickly but produced a similar pattern. A 10% decline took a median 14 days and led to a higher entry price in 57% of cases. A 20% fall took a median 44 days, while the eventual entry was higher than the skipped price in 52% of examples. Blackrock has noted that bitcoin’s strongest periods of performance have also involved significant volatility.
The figures are based on daily closing prices and Livingston’s chosen method for calculating a decline from a later high. Results may differ according to the data source and the time used to define a daily close. CF Benchmarks, for example, calculates a daily bitcoin reference price from trades on several exchanges at the New York market close.
The 216 signals may also contain highs that occurred close together during the same rally, meaning they should not be treated as 216 separate market cycles. The results describe the historical test rather than the actual returns of individual investors.
Waiting did sometimes lead to a much lower entry. Bitcoin reached a record above $126,000 in October 2025 before entering a prolonged decline. By June 30, it had fallen below $58,000 – less than half of that October peak.
Bitcoin remained about 33% below its October record on 26 September, despite recovering from its June low. It was trading near $84,162 that morning, having fallen back from a September high of about $87,374. From the June low of about $57,735, it had risen by roughly 46% by 26 September.
