Bitcoin is unlikely to reclaim the $100,000 mark before the end of 2026, according to analysts at leading cryptocurrency firms, who cite competition from other investments, the prospect of further interest rate rises and continued uncertainty over Iran.
The cryptocurrency has staged a modest recovery in recent months, but analysts believe financial and geopolitical pressures are limiting its appeal as an investment asset.
Alice Liu, head of research at CoinMarketCap, expects Bitcoin to continue recovering during the fourth quarter, although she warned that the wider cryptocurrency market would lag behind it.
“The worst of this year’s downturn is behind us, but the recovery will be uneven and led almost entirely by bitcoin,” Liu told SCMP.
CoinMarketCap forecasts that Bitcoin will finish 2026 between $85,000 and $92,000. Liu said, however, that unresolved developments in Iran could put further pressure on the price.
Oil prices have become increasingly volatile amid the situation, with Bitcoin recently moving in the opposite direction to the energy market.
“Bitcoin has started to move inversely to oil. Every de-escalation headline has lifted crypto, and every escalation has sold it off,” Liu said.
She described tensions involving Iran as “the single biggest swing factor for bitcoin this quarter”.
Interest rates are another major influence. Further tightening by the Federal Reserve could weaken market sentiment and make Bitcoin less attractive to investors.
“The risk of further tightening could weigh on sentiment,” said Angela Ang, BitGo’s APAC managing director.
Ang said recent changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) could encourage the Federal Reserve to raise rates again in an effort to contain inflation. Higher returns from lower-risk assets, including U.S. Treasuries, could also reduce demand for Bitcoin.
“The biggest constraint right now is the cost of capital. Investors can earn attractive yields on lower-risk instruments such as Treasuries, so crypto is competing for capital on harder terms this quarter,” she said.
Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone has offered a significantly more severe scenario. He said Bitcoin could fall to $10,000 if the U.S. stock market suffered a 20% drawdown, with U.S. Treasuries becoming considerably more attractive in that situation.
Bitcoin has struggled to recover since reaching a record high above $126,000 per coin in October 2025. Between 10 and 11 October 2025, the market suffered one of its largest crashes, with almost $19bn in leveraged positions liquidated and Bitcoin falling to intraday lows of $105,000.
The cryptocurrency was recently trading just above $81,000. It has remained below $100,000 throughout 2026, spent most of the period since mid-January below $90,000, and briefly dropped beneath $60,000 in June.
