Lookonchain says 40 newly created wallets have withdrawn 9,458 BTC from Wintermute since 1 October, prompting claims that large investors are accumulating Bitcoin.
The transfers were valued at $771.5m, implying a price of $81,571 per BTC. However, that figure is calculated from the reported total and does not confirm the prices paid by the recipients.
In a post on 24 October, market commentator Ash Crypto estimated the month’s accumulation at $780m. An accompanying screenshot showed transfers from wallets labelled Wintermute, including several transactions worth more than $20m.
The transactions included 306.314 BTC, 307.77 BTC and 364.286 BTC, as well as smaller transfers. The screenshot did not provide a complete monthly reconciliation or show when the receiving wallets acquired the coins.
Ash Crypto’s estimate is $8.5m higher than Lookonchain’s valuation, a difference of about 1.1%. His post did not explain the gap or say whether it used a later Bitcoin price.
The data also does not establish how many investors control the 40 addresses. They could belong to separate buyers or be multiple wallets operated by one entity. Nor does the tally, which covers movements since 1 October, prove that the entire amount was purchased at about $81,000.
Previous analysis of Bitcoin whale activity has highlighted the same limitations. Institutions can operate several addresses, while custodians may combine or separate holdings. A change in wallet balances can reflect custody transfers, collateral arrangements or over-the-counter transactions, rather than a change in ultimate ownership.
Larger one-day inflow
Another 24 October post drew attention to a separate movement. Market commentator Lucky cited 32,380 BTC, worth about $2.6bn, entering the market in one day and called it the largest inflow since April.
The post used a Coinglass chart titled “Bitcoin Wallet Inflow/Outflow”, with green and red bars showing wallet movements alongside Bitcoin’s price. Lucky compared the reading with an earlier inflow spike that was followed by a Bitcoin price peak several weeks later, while acknowledging that this did not prove the same pattern would repeat.
The chart did not disclose its full wallet-selection method or identify the counterparties involved, so it cannot establish that the 32,380 BTC represented new whale purchases. The figure is about 3.4 times Lookonchain’s 9,458 BTC, but the two observations cover different periods and wallet groups and cannot be subtracted to calculate net whale demand.
Wintermute positions and technical signals
Questions have also been raised about interpreting Wintermute-linked trading accounts. On 28 September, crypto.news reported $126.25m in shorts on Hyperliquid attributed by Onchain Lens to a Wintermute-linked wallet. Ethereum made up the largest position at $46.92m, followed by a $11.30m Solana short and approximately $10.03m in HYPE.
Wintermute had not confirmed ownership of the address or explained the positions. Market makers can use perpetual futures to hedge spot inventory, options, customer flows or exposure on other exchanges, meaning a visible short does not reveal all offsetting holdings. An analysis cited in that report found the account placing orders on both sides of market-making books, with a January snapshot showing about $101.7m in bids and $97.2m in asks across several assets.
Crypto Rover separately described Bitcoin’s bull market support band as a buying opportunity when the price touches it. His 24 October chart showed Bitcoin above a shaded moving-average band after recovering from earlier lows, but did not state its current value, an invalidation level or a verified performance record.
A 14 October setup by analyst Ali Martinez identified a four-hour close above resistance near $84,000 as a condition for a possible move towards $93,000. The level concerned a 50-period moving average on a four-hour chart, not a 50-day average.
Spot Bitcoin ETF data offered another measure of demand during September’s recovery. SoSoValue figures cited in September put net inflows at $191m on 24 September, including about $163m into BlackRock’s IBIT and $12.86m into Fidelity’s FBTC.
