Bitcoin failed to break through $80,000 on 11 September, despite US stocks rising by about 1% as long-dated Treasury yields remained close to levels not seen for years.
It reached an intraday high of $79,890, leaving it below the $80,000-$82,000 resistance area identified by digital asset trading firm QCP. The S&P 500 finished almost 1% higher, while the Dow and Nasdaq also recorded similar gains.
The contrasting moves do not yet show that Bitcoin has separated from wider macroeconomic conditions, nor do they prove that sellers near $80,000 have taken control of the market. But the cryptocurrency still needs to reclaim the level that has restricted its recent advance.
Bond yields remain a challenge
August core CPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month, keeping the Federal Reserve’s forthcoming decision central to Bitcoin’s outlook over the weekend.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury briefly climbed to 4.9915%, its highest point in almost three years. The 30-year yield reached 5.424%, a 19-year high. Both later eased, to about 4.95% and 5.341% respectively.
Even after that retreat, the 10-year yield remained close to 5%, creating a demanding environment for risk assets. Markets were pricing in about an 85% probability of a quarter-point Fed rate increase the following week.
Bitcoin’s relative underperformance left investors considering whether it was simply lagging behind the recovery in equities, or whether the area around $80,000 had become a significant obstacle in its own right.
Options point to two key price levels
QCP said implied volatility for at-the-money Bitcoin options expiring on 12 September was close to 46%. That compared with roughly 38%-40% elsewhere along the options curve.
Trading was concentrated in 12 September calls at $78,500 and $80,000. QCP also reported consistent demand for $75,000 puts expiring on 11 September and 18 September.
The call activity indicated continued interest in upside exposure close to Bitcoin’s current price, while demand for puts showed that investors were still paying to protect against a fall.
QCP identified support at $76,300-$76,500 and resistance in the $80,000-$82,000 range. A move below support would weaken the view that Bitcoin was merely pausing and put greater emphasis on protection around $75,000.
If it remained between about $76,500 and $80,000, the current consolidation would still be intact, leaving the Fed decision as the more important test. A recovery above $80,000 and into the $80,000-$82,000 zone would suggest Friday’s weakness was delayed progress rather than a breakdown in the recovery.
A move over the weekend could establish a direction, but would not, by itself, show whether macroeconomic pressure or Bitcoin-specific selling was responsible.
Fed decision provides the next test
The Federal Reserve’s 15-16 September meeting includes a new Summary of Economic Projections.
The key question will be whether Bitcoin can hold an advance beyond QCP’s range after the announcement. A break above $80,000-$82,000 would strengthen the recovery case, while a fall through $76,300-$76,500 would weaken the consolidation argument. Neither move alone would identify its cause.
