Bitcoin fell to an intraday low of $83,500 on 23 September as a sharp rise in US real yields increased the opportunity cost of holding the cryptocurrency.
The 10-year US Treasury yield closed at 5.11%, up 15 basis points in one session, after stronger-than-expected business activity data prompted investors to reassess the outlook for interest rates. Bitcoin is now trading in the $84,000-$85,000 area, identified by Glassnode as its nearest on-chain support zone.
Most of the increase in borrowing costs came from real yields. The 10-year real yield, which excludes expected inflation, rose from 2.63% to 2.76%, accounting for 13 of the 15 basis points added to the nominal yield. Implied 10-year inflation compensation increased only slightly, from about 2.33% to 2.35%.
The move followed S&P Global’s September Purchasing Managers’ Index, with the composite reading rising from 56.0 to 58.4. Services activity reached 58.7 and manufacturing 57.0, marking the strongest expansion recorded by the survey since July 2021.
Such resilient economic activity gives the Federal Reserve less scope to cut rates, shortly after its 16 September decision to set the target range at 3.75% to 4.00%. Intraday reports placed the 10-year yield near 5.058% within minutes of the PMI release before the Treasury curve settled at 5.11%.
The bond-market sell-off coincided with Bitcoin’s decline. About $280m in long positions were liquidated as the price moved below $84,000, according to CoinGlass.
Key levels for Bitcoin
Glassnode’s 23 September report identified the largest concentration of long-term holder supply between $84,000 and $85,000. Bitcoin remains above both the short-term holder cost basis and the True Market Mean at $77,000, which Glassnode regards as the principal downside reference if support at $84,000 fails.
The next major resistance level is $96,700, based on the mean MVRV price. From a price of about $84,282, $77,000 is 8.6% lower, while $96,700 is 14.7% higher.
An intraday move below $84,000 would not necessarily damage the structure, but repeated daily closes beneath the zone would bring $77,000 into focus. Glassnode’s analysis is based on sustained trading below the supply cluster, making daily closes important in assessing the 23 September decline.
Demand had strengthened before the bond-market move. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $1.3bn of inflows in the five days after the recent squeeze began, ending two weeks of outflows. Exchange spot volume over the same period rose 121% from its August low.
Farside Investors recorded ETF inflows of $999m on 21 September, $714.7m on 22 September and $346.9m on 23 September. On 22 September, IBIT led with $350.3m, followed by FBTC on $257.4m and MSBT on $99m. The data shows inflows continued during Wednesday’s bond sell-off, although at a slower pace than on Tuesday.
Glassnode’s ETF and on-chain analysis mainly covers data through 21 September, while its spot-volume figures run through 22 September.
Friday brings about $16bn of Bitcoin options expiring on Deribit, followed by US durable goods and consumer sentiment data, while CME’s September Bitcoin futures settlement is due later that afternoon.
Bitcoin’s next direction may depend on whether real yields fall back below roughly 2.65%, ETF inflows remain positive and daily closes hold within $84,000-$85,000. That scenario would put $96,700 in focus. If yields rise towards 2.85%-2.90%, ETF flows weaken or turn negative, and Bitcoin sustains closes below support, $77,000 would become the active downside reference.
