Bitcoin has climbed above $86,000 after recovering from two negative developments in the same week: a US Federal Reserve interest-rate increase and the Senate’s failure to advance the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act.
BitGo Research said on 22 September that Bitcoin had responded differently from several traditional assets after the Federal Open Market Committee raised rates on 16 September. Research chief Greg Cipolaro said the cryptocurrency’s limited reaction suggested the market was absorbing both tighter monetary policy and the regulatory setback.
The Federal Reserve increased its federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, its first rate rise since July 2023. All 12 voting members supported the decision.
While the increase had been widely expected, the Fed’s updated projections were seen as more significant. The median federal funds rate was forecast at 4.1% for both 2026 and 2027, up from 3.8% and 3.6% respectively in June. The 2028 median rose from 3.4% to 3.9%.
Sixteen of the 18 Fed participants projected at least one further rise above the current 3.75%-4.00% range before the end of 2026. Cipolaro said “the dot plot wasn’t” fully priced, although individual projections do not represent firm policy commitments.
Bitcoin initially fell towards $75,000, but returned to about $76,000-$76,700 within several hours. By comparison, the Dow closed 1.21% lower on 16 September and the S&P 500 fell 0.44%, while shorter-term US Treasury yields rose and the dollar strengthened.
A day earlier, the Senate had rejected a procedural vote on H.R. 3633, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act. The 49-50 vote failed to reach the 60 votes needed to begin formal debate.
The legislation would create a federal framework dividing digital-asset oversight between the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Senator Thom Tillis voted against cloture to make a motion to reconsider. No further vote had been listed by 23 September.
Bitcoin briefly moved towards $75,350-$75,500 after the vote and was trading near $75,940 on 16 September. Cipolaro said Bitcoin “failing to sell off on two negative catalysts in the same week” was more significant than either event considered separately.
The subsequent recovery was helped by renewed demand for US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, falling Treasury yields, softer oil prices and short covering. Bitcoin passed $80,000 later in the week and rose above $85,000 on 21 September.
CoinGecko showed it near $86,230 on 23 September, up about 13.3% over seven days, with a range of roughly $75,151-$87,330.
The ETFs recorded combined outflows of about $746.3m on 15 and 16 September, followed by inflows of roughly $159.5m on 17 September and $433m the next day. On 21 September, inflows reached approximately $999m, their strongest one-day total since October 2025. BlackRock’s IBIT attracted around $381m, ARK and 21Shares’ ARKB about $289m, and Fidelity’s FBTC roughly $239m.
Nansen analyst Nicolai Sondergaard said the move appeared to reflect ETF buying and forced short liquidations, but warned that Bitcoin was still flowing onto exchanges, leaving supply available if momentum weakened.
BitGo said Bitcoin had previously behaved more like a high-beta risk asset during periods of rising rates, often falling with equities. It said gold, equities, Treasury yields and the dollar initially reacted as expected to a hawkish Fed, while Bitcoin “didn’t play its assigned role”.
The next scheduled Fed meeting is on 27-28 October, with minutes from the 15-16 September meeting due on 7 October. The Senate’s motion to reconsider remains a possible procedural route for another CLARITY Act vote, but no date had been announced by 23 September.
