Bitcoin’s recovery from its June low has led Keefe, Bruyette & Woods analyst Stephen Glagola to put the probability of a wider cryptocurrency cycle turning at 75%.
The assessment was included in a 28 September report as the investment bank resumed coverage of crypto exchange Coinbase (Nasdaq: COIN). Bitcoin is being used as a proxy for the broader digital asset market, but Glagola’s figure reflects his view of the market cycle rather than a forecast for the cryptocurrency’s next price move.
According to the report, bitcoin fell 53% from its October 2025 peak to a closing low on 30 June. The decline took about 8.8 months, shorter than the roughly 12-month average recorded during the previous three bear markets. Those earlier downturns saw average falls of about 82% from peak to trough.
Glagola’s comparison is based on the pattern of major bitcoin advances being followed by extended declines. However, the timing and scale of previous market cycles have varied. Earlier bear markets also featured rallies of more than 30% that subsequently failed, meaning the current recovery could still reverse. The analyst added that on-chain indicators have not yet recorded the deep capitulation seen around previous market bottoms.
Bitcoin closed at about $84,400 on 26 September, approximately 44% above its 30 June close near $58,500, the report said. It then fell to roughly $83,100 on 28 September, a decline of about 1.6% from the previous session. The pullbacks during its recovery from the June sell-off remain relevant to the question of whether the market has entered a new cycle.
A separate holder cost-basis analysis published on 24 September identified a crossover that its author interpreted as confirmation of a bull market. That method differs from Glagola’s historical comparison, and neither analysis establishes the direction of future prices.
Fidelity gave a more cautious assessment in its 1 September crypto market outlook. It said the market low may already have been reached, but also warned that another decline could take place later this year. Fidelity said changes in bitcoin’s market structure may make the timing of past four-year cycles less dependable.
The cycle outlook forms part of Glagola’s investment case for Coinbase. KBW resumed coverage of the company with an Outperform rating and a $237 price target, compared with the $195.11 market price cited in the report. Glagola expects improved crypto trading activity to support earnings, while stablecoin revenue, derivatives and prediction markets could expand Coinbase’s business beyond spot trading.
Coinbase reported a record 10.3% share of crypto trading volume in the second quarter, up from 9.1% in the first. Its second-quarter results also showed average USDC holdings of $20 billion across its products. USDC is designed to maintain a value of $1.
Glagola forecasts Coinbase’s 2027 adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization will be 24% above analyst consensus, assuming a moderate recovery in trading.
Coinbase chief executive Brian Armstrong separately said in a 10 September interview that he believed bitcoin had reached a cycle low. KBW identified weaker stock markets and renewed Federal Reserve tightening as risks to its outlook.
Coinbase is also giving eligible US retail investors access to IPO allocations through its app, beginning with Oura’s offering.
