Bitcoin has climbed about 3% to $79,143 after reaching an intraday high of $79,325, with Donald Trump’s comments about possible talks with Iran helping the cryptocurrency recover.
Trump said Iran wanted to reach an agreement with the United States, although Iranian state media rejected that claim. The conflicting statements have left the prospects for a deal uncertain.
Bitcoin rose from a daily low of $76,388. After first moving above $78,000, it reached $78,940 before extending its gains. A Binance chart on TradingView showed the cryptocurrency opening at $76,842 and trading near $79,143 when captured.
“The failing Nation of Iran wants to make a deal, quickly and badly,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
The US president said he would decide whether Washington would engage with Tehran, while adding that the United States was open to the possibility. His remarks raised the prospect of renewed negotiations after months of military exchanges and repeated attempts to secure a lasting agreement.
US shares also recovered from an earlier fall, with about $570bn returning to equities within three hours after more than $600bn had been wiped from the market. Technology stocks had come under further pressure after artificial intelligence executives called for slower development because of safety concerns.
Bitcoin’s rebound suggested traders were prepared to take on more risk after Trump referred to diplomacy. Iranian state media, however, denied that Tehran was seeking a quick agreement.
LiveSquawk separately cited Iran’s ILNA news agency as reporting that the United States had sought a “phased” agreement, according to information attributed to a Pakistani source. The report did not show that either side had accepted final terms.
Oil and the Strait of Hormuz
Oil prices remain a major risk for US investors as fighting involving Iran-aligned forces affects energy production and shipping routes.
Reuters reported that Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis had fired missiles and drones at a military airbase in Khamis Mushait, Saudi Arabia. The group said it had targeted aircraft hangars, radar equipment, runways and ammunition storage areas in response to Saudi strikes in Yemen.
Saudi Arabia also said Iran-backed fighters in Iraq were responsible for an attack that forced the closure of the country’s east-west oil pipeline. The route allows exports to avoid the Strait of Hormuz, where traffic remains restricted.
Traders told Reuters that a prolonged closure could affect up to 4% of global oil supply. Brent crude rose more than 4% after the weekend before giving back some of the increase following Trump’s comments. It later traded near $106 a barrel, while US crude remained above $100.
The average retail diesel price in the United States reached a record above $6.23 per gallon, Reuters reported. Higher energy costs could add to inflation and complicate the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision.
Bitfinex analysts identified energy prices and real Treasury yields as restraints on Bitcoin. They said an oil shock could keep inflation expectations high, while tighter monetary policy could reduce liquidity without resolving the loss of energy supply.
Oman had planned to host Iranian and Gulf officials to discuss the future operation of the Strait of Hormuz, but Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr Albusaidi postponed the meeting “in the interests of consensus”. No replacement date was given.
Iran said Saudi Arabia had requested the delay and published a list of 77 vessels it said had breached operating rules in the strait. Tehran warned that future violations could lead to fines, detention or confiscation.
Bitcoin resistance near $80,000
Bitcoin is back above the midpoint of its daily Bollinger Bands but has not yet broken through the upper boundary.
The midpoint stood near $78,521, with the upper band at about $81,035 and the lower band around $76,008. The move above $78,521 gives buyers control of the immediate range, although resistance remains between $80,000 and $81,035.
A one-week CoinGlass liquidation heatmap showed the largest nearby concentration of leveraged positions around $79,900 to $80,000. Smaller pools were visible between roughly $80,200 and $80,700. A move through that area would bring $81,035 into focus, followed by the larger $82,000 level identified in recent Bitfinex analysis.
Momentum remains mixed. The daily MACD line was near 1,579, below its signal line at about 2,211, while the histogram had fallen to approximately minus 631. Both lines remained above zero, but the bearish crossover and red histogram bars indicated weaker momentum after Bitcoin’s sharp August rally.
Bitcoin has struggled to hold above $81,000 since first moving beyond $80,000. Buyers have defended declines towards the mid-$76,000s, but repeated attempts to maintain higher levels have failed.
The first support level is the Bollinger midpoint near $78,521. A break below it could expose the $77,500-$78,000 region, followed by the larger liquidity concentration around $76,000. A sustained fall through that area could open the way towards another pool between $75,000 and $75,400.
Federal Reserve decision ahead
The Federal Reserve is scheduled to meet on 15 and 16 September, with its policy statement, updated economic projections and Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference due on Wednesday.
Markets had priced in an 87% probability of a quarter-point increase. That would lift the federal funds target range from 3.50%-3.75% to 3.75%-4.00%.
Bitfinex analysts said the Fed’s economic projections could matter more for Bitcoin than the rate decision itself because they may indicate whether officials expect one increase or a longer series of rises. Higher Treasury yields can increase the appeal of government securities and competition for capital held in non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin.
US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds attracted $986.7m in the week ending 4 September, following $924.5m of inflows the previous week. Three consecutive positive weeks took combined inflows to about $3.8bn.
Federal Reserve policy, oil prices and developments around the Strait of Hormuz will now affect Bitcoin alongside the liquidation levels on its chart. The central bank is due to publish its decision on Wednesday afternoon, followed by Warsh’s press conference and the updated projections.
This article does not represent investment advice. Its content and materials are for educational purposes only.
