Bernstein has cut its earnings forecast and price target for Coinbase, while raising its expectations for Robinhood and Circle ahead of the companies’ third-quarter results.
The investment firm retained its Outperform rating on COIN, HOOD and CRCL in a report published on Monday. Its latest projections place greater emphasis on prediction markets, derivatives and tokenisation, with traditional crypto trading expected to play a smaller role in future growth.
Coinbase forecast reduced
Bernstein reduced its Coinbase price target to $250 from $330, citing weaker crypto trading volumes and a recovery that has failed to gather pace.
Analysts Gautam Chhugani, Mahika Sapra and Sanskar Chindalia cut their 2026 revenue forecast by about 32% to $5.5 billion. They now expect Coinbase to report a full-year loss of $2.60 per share, compared with their previous estimate of a $5.97 profit.
“We no longer assume any bullish crypto price action in our estimates,” the analysts wrote.
Despite the downgrade, Bernstein expects Coinbase’s prediction-market and derivatives businesses to become significant sources of income. Their combined revenue is forecast to reach about $2 billion by 2028, compared with an earlier estimate of approximately $600 million.
For the third quarter, spot trading is expected to remain unchanged at $150 billion. The analysts identified stablecoin revenue as the main contributor to growth during the period.
Coinbase shares were trading slightly above $162 on Monday, leaving the stock down more than 31% so far this year.
Robinhood event contracts gain ground
Bernstein expects Robinhood to generate $1.7 billion in prediction-market revenue in 2028, narrowly ahead of its projected $1.6 billion in crypto revenue.
Event-contract volumes are forecast to rise 21% quarter on quarter to about 16.4 billion contracts. Crypto trading across Robinhood and its Bitstamp subsidiary is expected to recover to roughly $50 billion, although that would still be 38% below third-quarter volumes last year, when the 2025 crypto bull run was at its peak.
Robinhood’s native blockchain, launched in July, recorded around $90 billion in transaction volume and generated $50 million in fees during the third quarter. Most of that activity came from memecoin trading.
Bernstein left its Robinhood price target unchanged at $160. HOOD shares were trading at $93.37 on Monday, down about 17.5% year to date.
Circle target raised
Bernstein increased its price target for USDC issuer Circle to $145 from $140, based on the presales of its Arc token and the outlook for reserve yields.
The firm expects Circle’s third-quarter revenue to edge up to $770 million, despite forecasting a fall in reserve income after USDC supply declined to about $73 billion from $77 billion in the second quarter.
Arc could provide Circle with additional income beyond interest generated from USDC reserves, including transaction fees and validator staking revenue, the analysts said.
Circle shares were trading at about $80.50 on Monday, up approximately 1.5% this year, making it the only one of the three companies whose stock remains in positive territory.
