Polymarket, one of the world’s largest crypto prediction platforms, is preparing to challenge a decision by France’s gambling regulator to block access to its website, in a case that could shape how such markets are treated across Europe.
The New York-based firm confirmed it will contest an order from the Autorite Nationale des Jeux (ANJ), which last week instructed French internet providers to bar users from Polymarket over what it described as illegal gambling, excessive loss risks and fears of market manipulation.
“We are disappointed by the French gaming authority’s (ANJ’s) sudden decision to unilaterally block our website we intend to challenge this decision through the legal process in France,” Polymarket stated.
The legal action, reported by Reuters, is expected to test whether the ANJ can keep the service blocked under its current classification of the platform as an unauthorised gambling operator.
French regulator moves to shut out prediction market
On 16 July, ANJ president Isabelle Falque-Pierrotin issued an order directing French internet service providers to restrict access to Polymarket for users in France.
According to the regulator’s statement, cited by Reuters, the site had drawn a significant French user base while offering betting-style services that ANJ considers illegal under national gambling law.
An ANJ spokesperson told Reuters that the restrictions would stay in place until the regulator deems Polymarket to be compliant with French rules. The court case will now determine whether that approach can stand, or whether Polymarket must be treated under a different legal framework.
Polymarket has not disclosed the precise legal arguments it intends to make, nor the exact timing of its filing, but has said it will use France’s courts to oppose the block.
How Polymarket works – and why it is under scrutiny
Unlike traditional bookmakers, Polymarket allows users to trade contracts linked to the outcomes of real-world events in politics, economics, sports, the weather and armed conflicts.
Participants buy and sell positions representing possible outcomes, with prices moving as expectations change – a structure that supporters say helps aggregate information and generate publicly visible forecasts.
ANJ, however, tied its intervention to both the potential losses facing users and the design of certain contracts. The watchdog warned that some markets on the platform could be subject to manipulation and expose customers to “substantial gambling losses”.
Weather-related markets came in for particular criticism in the French statement. The regulator said users had been betting on specific weather outcomes and raised suspicions that some traders might have been operating with inside information when placing those wagers.
Alongside those concerns, global regulators have become increasingly uneasy about contracts linked to sensitive geopolitical events. Additional reporting cited by Bloomberg has highlighted trading patterns on Polymarket that resemble potential insider activity, especially in markets tied to developments in Iran and Venezuela.
Polymarket has referred nearly 100 suspicious crypto wallets to law enforcement agencies and says it has stepped up monitoring for possible insider dealing.
Billions at stake as prediction platforms expand
The French action comes as prediction markets handle dramatically larger sums of money.
A person familiar with Polymarket’s finances told Reuters in June that the company’s annualised revenue had surpassed $1bn.
Industry-wide trading has also surged around major sporting events. Data from Dune Analytics, cited by Reuters, indicated that users wagered about $19.04bn through Polymarket and its rival Kalshi during the most recent football World Cup.
These figures have intensified debate over whether such event-linked contracts should be treated as financial derivatives, gambling products, or a new category requiring a bespoke regulatory regime.
France has opted to handle Polymarket under gambling legislation. In contrast, the US has seen competing arguments over whether oversight should fall primarily to federal derivatives regulators or remain within the orbit of state-level betting and gambling laws.
Different national responses to same platforms
While France singled out Polymarket in its July order, it did not announce any equivalent block against Kalshi, which offers a similar range of event contracts.
Spain took a broader approach earlier in the year. In May, its government temporarily barred both Polymarket and Kalshi from operating in the country, according to reporting by crypto.news.
In the United States, disputes around the same platforms have moved from regulatory agencies into courts and Congress.
The US House Agriculture Committee has examined customer protection and market integrity in sports-related prediction markets. Its Commodity Markets, Digital Assets, and Rural Development Subcommittee heard from legal experts and representatives of the American Gaming Association and Indian Gaming Association.
Both industry bodies have urged lawmakers to prevent venues such as Kalshi and Polymarket from offering sports event contracts. According to the associations, those products are essentially standard sports bets that can circumvent state gambling controls, tribal gaming rights and established responsible-getting rules.
Supporters of prediction markets counter that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) already has the necessary authority over event contracts. The CFTC has backed federal jurisdiction in clashes with state regulators and in June issued draft rules aimed at the prediction-market sector.
However, US state courts have not always accepted that federal oversight pre-empts local enforcement. On 21 July, a Washington state judge granted a preliminary injunction against Kalshi, ruling that its contracts likely breached state gambling statutes. Authorities in Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada and New York have also obtained orders restricting the company’s activities.
A test case for Europe’s approach
The looming French court case will now place many of these unresolved questions before a national judge: how to classify event contracts, how to balance innovation with consumer protection, and where the boundary lies between financial regulation and gambling law.
Whatever the ruling, the outcome will determine whether ANJ’s block on Polymarket remains in force – and could set an important precedent for how prediction markets are treated across the European Union, even as regulators in the US continue to pursue a different path.
