21Shares has identified regulatory clarity, institutional access, measurable blockchain activity and XRP’s fixed supply as the four main pillars of its investment case, while warning that greater use of the XRP Ledger may not automatically create lasting demand for the token.
The crypto asset manager’s investment strategist Maximiliaan Michielsen said the potential value of XRP ultimately depends on blockchain-based settlement operating at a much larger scale.
Regulatory certainty is the foundation of the argument. Nearly five years of litigation between Ripple Labs and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) ended in August 2025, when the SEC and Ripple jointly dismissed their appeals.
That left the district court’s final judgment in place, including a $125 million civil penalty and an injunction preventing Ripple from breaching the registration provisions of the Securities Act of 1933.
In a post on X on Sept. 11, 21Shares presented the legal dispute as settled, while describing the other three parts of its thesis as areas still developing.
ETFs widen institutional access
21Shares counts seven U.S. spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that began trading from November 2025. However, REX-Osprey’s XRPR launched on Sept. 18, 2025, becoming the first U.S.-listed ETF to offer spot XRP exposure.
The products attracted $1.3 billion in their first month and recorded a 55-day run of inflows, according to the analysis. More recent figures put cumulative net inflows at $1.68 billion through Sept. 4, with the total rising above $1.70 billion by Sept. 9 despite inconsistent daily movements.
Institutional participation has not moved in one direction. Goldman Sachs reported $153.8 million of exposure at the end of 2025, before leaving the market during the first quarter. By June 30, the bank had returned and was the largest disclosed holder of spot XRP ETFs, with $87.45 million of the $183.5 million being tracked.
Form 13F filings show qualifying securities held by major investment managers, rather than XRP held directly on the ledger. Such positions may be used for market making, arbitrage, hedging or longer-term investment. As a result, ETF ownership improves regulated access but does not reveal why an institution holds the shares or how long it intends to keep them.
Activity and supply
21Shares estimates that the XRP Ledger processed almost half a trillion dollars in on-chain value over 12 months. It also valued RLUSD at close to $1.6 billion and tokenised assets at about $4 billion.
Token Terminal data placed circulating RLUSD at approximately $2.4 billion on Sept. 12, following growth of more than 50% in one month. Evernorth’s July figures put tokenised real-world assets at about $4 billion across more than 500 products.
Recent ledger upgrades give institutions greater control over issuing and managing tokenised assets. Official specifications for Multi-Purpose Tokens include supply caps, approved-holder lists, transfer restrictions, freezes and clawbacks, allowing compliance and asset-management controls to be built into the token itself.
The final pillar is XRP’s supply structure. All 100 billion tokens were created when the ledger launched. The public XRP Ledger uses XRP to pay transaction costs and provide liquidity, while validated transactions destroy a small amount. 21Shares estimates that more than 14 million XRP has been burned. Scheduled escrow releases can change the circulating supply without increasing the original cap.
The main risk, according to 21Shares, is that institutions may use the ledger while holding XRP only briefly. Higher settlement volumes therefore may not produce sustained token demand, leaving investors exposed to whether tokenised settlement can scale and whether that growth ultimately benefits XRP holders.
