Americans and international bettors alike stake millions as Trump takes slight lead in latest predictions
With just two days until the U.S. Presidential election, betting markets are witnessing unprecedented activity as both Americans and global participants place wagers on the highly anticipated outcome. The trend follows a recent ruling by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, allowing Americans to legally bet on election results for the first time.
Kalshi, a popular betting platform, has reported that a staggering $177.36 million has been traded on their platform for election-related wagers, as of November 3. The platform shows former President Donald Trump holding a narrow lead with a 51.1% probability of winning, against 48.9% for Vice President Kamala Harris. However, Trump’s lead showed signs of a potential dip, with a 3.9% decline in his campaign momentum observed on November 2.
Kalshi’s data highlights several critical battleground states, with Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, and Wisconsin designated as swing states—suggesting a fiercely competitive landscape between Republicans and Democrats. With both Trump and Harris holding similar odds across these states, the narrow margins have only intensified betting activity as supporters on each side gamble on their preferred candidate.
Polymarket, a platform allowing international participation, has seen even higher odds in Trump’s favor, with 54% of bets backing his victory and 46% for Harris. The platform’s betting prices reflect this split, with Trump’s win priced at 54.1 cents and Harris’s at 46.1 cents. Notably, Polymarket has attracted bettors from various countries, including Finland, Australia, France, Spain, New Zealand, and Argentina, many of whom are eager to capitalize on the election or are speculating based on their country’s ties with the United States.
Other U.S.-based platforms, such as Robinhood, have also joined in the action following the recent appeals court decision, making the election a significant event in the online betting industry. Robinhood has enabled users to place wagers on potential victories in individual states and even the overall distribution of seats in Congress, adding further avenues for betting enthusiasts.
Despite India’s restrictions on online betting, a few Indian citizens are reportedly circumventing the rules by using VPNs and cryptocurrencies to place bets on Polymarket. This method allows users to participate anonymously, evading regulatory limitations by using digital currencies to bypass regional restrictions.
As election day approaches, betting platforms are expected to see further increases in wagers, with many betting on last-minute shifts in campaign momentum. The U.S. political betting market has rarely seen such enthusiasm, with the tight race between Trump and Harris fueling even greater anticipation and unprecedented betting figures.
