Shifting sentiment among crypto investors as U.S. election race tightens
As the U.S. presidential race intensifies, Republican candidate Donald Trump’s lead over Vice President Kamala Harris has begun to wane, according to recent data from Polymarket. Trump’s odds of winning have dropped from 66.9% to 54%, while Harris has gained momentum, now standing at 46.1%. This narrowing gap reflects an evolving market sentiment with Election Day just hours away.
Polymarket, an Ethereum blockchain-based prediction platform, allows users to buy and sell shares in various real-world outcomes using stablecoin USDC, rather than more volatile cryptocurrencies. One notable user, known as Théo, has reportedly wagered over $30 million on Trump’s re-election, according to The Wall Street Journal.
The shift in market odds aligns with results from the latest Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll, which suggests a swing in Harris’s favor. Ann Selzer, a respected pollster recognized for her accurate forecasting, reported that Harris now leads Trump by three points among likely voters in Iowa. The poll showed Harris holding 47% of voter support compared to Trump’s 44%, marking a significant change from September when Trump led by four points. Selzer noted that this year’s polling approach mirrored her methods in 2016 and 2020, years in which Trump carried Iowa.
At the same time, the evolving dynamics of cryptocurrency regulation are becoming increasingly central to both campaigns. Trump has established himself as an advocate for cryptocurrency, making headlines for his commitment to back digital currencies at a May event held at Mar-a-Lago. His campaign’s acceptance of crypto donations underscores his alignment with the sector.
By contrast, Harris has taken a more moderate stance on digital currencies. She has indicated that her administration would consider incorporating cryptocurrency as part of a broader strategy for economic competitiveness. In September, Harris gained an endorsement from Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen, who contributed over $11.8 million to her campaign. Larsen, in a statement to CNBC, noted that Harris’s approach could signal a shift from current policies under President Joe Biden, who has faced criticism for his appointment of Gary Gensler as chair of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The financial markets have responded to these political fluctuations. Bitcoin, which had experienced a steady rise amid Trump’s previous lead, recently dropped to $68,000, mirroring the uncertainty in the electoral landscape. This decline has coincided with a 1.95% fall in the global crypto market cap, now standing at approximately $2.28 trillion.
Polymarket’s data, together with these latest polling shifts, reflects a volatile moment in both U.S. politics and the crypto sphere.
