Trump Seizes on Crypto Betting Platform’s Projections, While Experts Warn of Possible Manipulation
Former President Donald Trump has touted odds from Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-powered betting site, that show him leading Vice President Kamala Harris in the upcoming U.S. presidential election. According to a graphic Trump posted on social media this week, the site places his chances of winning at 64%, significantly higher than traditional polls that suggest the race remains close. The post, which drew over 10,000 likes, has fueled speculation among Trump’s supporters that victory is imminent.
Polymarket has become a major player in the 2024 election betting landscape, with over $100 million in wagers placed on the outcome using digital currencies. Prominent figures, including tech mogul Elon Musk, have promoted the platform, claiming its odds are more reliable than traditional polling because “actual money is on the line.” Musk’s endorsement on X (formerly Twitter) has only amplified the attention Polymarket has received, with media outlets such as CNN incorporating the platform’s projections into their election coverage.
“A gambling poll, as they call it,” Trump remarked recently. “I don’t know what the hell it means, but it means that we’re doing pretty well.”
Allegations of Market Manipulation
However, Trump’s apparent lead on Polymarket might be more complicated than it seems. An analysis by crypto data firm Chaos Labs revealed that Trump’s odds began shifting in his favor after four accounts, later discovered to be controlled by a single French national, bet more than $30 million on his victory. Polymarket confirmed that the accounts belonged to one individual with a background in financial services, though the gambler’s identity has not been disclosed.
This has raised concerns that the site may be vulnerable to manipulation. Rajiv Sethi, an economics professor at Barnard College, noted that the individual behind the large bets might have been “willing to take the losses in order to change public perceptions” of Trump’s chances, potentially influencing campaign donations, voter turnout, and morale.
Despite these concerns, Polymarket has continued to attract widespread attention. Founded in 2020, the New York-based startup allows users to wager cryptocurrency on various outcomes, ranging from political elections to celebrity relationships. The company’s spokesperson insists that it has “industry-leading compliance measures” in place to prevent U.S. residents from participating, as political gambling remains legally murky in the country. Polymarket ceased offering its services to U.S. customers in 2022 after a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for operating without proper registration.
Growing Influence in the Election Landscape
The frenzy surrounding Polymarket’s election odds has also brought scrutiny over whether U.S. users are bypassing geo-restrictions through virtual private networks (VPNs), a tactic described by one former employee as “an open secret.” While the platform has faced its share of challenges, including regulatory fines and restrictions, it continues to stand out among prediction websites.
Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund, which backs Polymarket, is reportedly leading a new $50 million financing round that could value the startup at $300 million. In addition, Nate Silver, a prominent election analyst, joined the company as an adviser earlier this year.
Polymarket’s CEO, Shayne Coplan, has actively promoted the platform as a groundbreaking tool for “market-based journalism” and more accurate than traditional polls. “It’s a more useful form of gambling,” said Nick Tomaino, a partner at 1confirmation, one of Polymarket’s early investors. Tomaino believes the odds produced by the site offer valuable insights into public opinion.
Despite the controversy, Coplan has remained a prominent figure in the political and crypto worlds, attending both the Republican and Democratic national conventions this year. However, as Polymarket’s popularity surges, so too does the potential for bad actors to exploit the platform for political gain.
Former Polymarket employee Cristian Perez Ramirez warned, “People with enough motivation and enough capital can easily manipulate it.”
Polymarket has stated that the French trader responsible for the massive Trump bets is no longer allowed to place additional wagers without prior notice. Still, investors like Joey Krug of Founders Fund argue that market forces will naturally correct any price distortions, as others will bet against manipulated odds.
As the 2024 election draws nearer, Polymarket’s influence continues to grow. This month, Musk posted another Polymarket chart on X, calling for a “decisive victory” for Trump. Coplan, in turn, shared Musk’s message with a sense of disbelief, writing, “Had to see it to believe it.”