Gold prices have soared more than 40% in 2025, outpacing stocks and cryptocurrencies as investors seek safety amid global uncertainty. Analysts predict the rally could extend into 2026.
Gold outpaces stocks and crypto in 2025
Gold has emerged as the standout performer of 2025, doubling in value over the past three years and rising more than 40% since January. Its surge has eclipsed the S&P 500’s 10% gain and even left bitcoin trailing, despite cryptocurrency’s record-breaking year under the Trump administration’s economic policies.
Unlike equities, where optimism often fuels growth, gold’s rally reflects deep anxiety across the global economy. The metal’s reputation as a safe-haven asset has been reinforced as geopolitical tensions, rising unemployment and currency volatility push investors, governments and central banks towards defensive holdings.
“Gold’s identity and benefit as a store of value are intertwined with financial turmoil,” analysts note. “People, governments and institutions don’t usually seek refuge when things are going well.”
Rate cuts and unemployment add fuel
Much of the momentum has been driven by expectations of interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve. A cooling labour market and rising unemployment have prompted speculation of aggressive monetary easing.
Paradoxically, what looks like bad news for workers has been welcomed by investors. Lower interest rates typically diminish the appeal of government bonds, increasing the relative attractiveness of gold.
Political uncertainty and a weakening dollar
The post-pandemic political landscape has also played a pivotal role in shaping investor sentiment. President Trump’s trade policies have unsettled global markets, encouraging investors to hedge against US assets.
The dollar has been one of the biggest casualties. Morgan Stanley Research reported that the US currency suffered its steepest first-half loss since 1973, falling nearly 10% year to date. Long-term Treasury yields remain high, while scepticism towards US debt continues to grow.
As a result, investors and central banks have sought alternatives. Foreign central bank holdings of gold have now surpassed their holdings of US Treasuries for the first time since 1996, according to Bloomberg data compiled by Crescat Capital.
Analysts eye $5,000 milestone
Goldman Sachs analysts suggest prices could climb to $5,000 an ounce by 2026 if political pressure on the Federal Reserve intensifies and investors reallocate from bonds into bullion.
Yet, unlike speculative assets such as bitcoin, gold’s strength lies in its stability rather than innovation. “Gold is inert,” one strategist said. “But that’s also its ultimate selling point: the precious metal has the virtue of not pretending to be anything else.”
Defensive demand defines the rally
For now, gold’s bullish momentum rests on uncertainty. Global investors are not chasing transformative technologies but seeking protection against inflation, currency weakness and political interference.
That defensive instinct has made 2025 a golden year — and many believe the shine could last well into 2026.
