Elon Musk, the enigmatic entrepreneur who has pushed the boundaries of technology, now finds himself at a pivotal juncture with his electric vehicle giant, Tesla. Known for groundbreaking feats, such as the recent successful launch and vertical landing of the world’s largest rocket by his company SpaceX, Musk has long been a master of innovation. However, his latest unveilings in the automotive sector have drawn skepticism, with some viewing them as little more than smoke and mirrors.
Recently, Musk showcased a new concept for a two-seater autonomous vehicle, dubbed the “Cybercab,” which lacks a steering wheel. The announcement, made with fanfare, provided scant detail about how the vehicle would function or meet regulatory safety standards. Promising production by 2026, the event also featured Tesla’s prototype robot, Optimus, which Musk claimed would soon handle household chores for less than $30,000. Both the Cybercab and Optimus were, however, criticized for their lack of technological advancement. Observers noted that the robots were largely remote-controlled, and the car appeared to offer little more than Tesla’s existing Full Self Driving (FSD) system, which still requires human oversight.
The market responded swiftly, wiping $50 billion off Tesla’s value as investors grew wary of Musk’s lofty promises. With Tesla’s current FSD technology rated at Level 2 on the autonomy scale (which ranges from 1 to 5), the system requires a driver to be present and ready to take control at any moment. This falls far short of the fully autonomous dream Musk has sold to investors. Meanwhile, competitors like Waymo, with their Level 4 autonomy, have already launched commercial driverless services in cities like San Francisco, using advanced Lidar and radar systems—technology that Tesla vehicles lack.
For Tesla, which has few new vehicle models in development, the shift toward autonomy is critical. Musk has staked Tesla’s future on its self-driving capabilities, with ambitious plans to transform the company into a $5 trillion enterprise through an autonomous taxi network. To support these bold claims, Musk secured a $56 billion share payment deal, tying his personal compensation to Tesla’s success in the autonomy sector. Yet, without a significant regulatory shift, such a breakthrough seems years away.
This is where Musk’s political connections come into play. The billionaire has aligned himself with Donald Trump, reportedly donating substantial amounts of money and time to the former president’s campaign. In return, Musk appears to be banking on Trump’s willingness to enact policies favorable to Tesla’s self-driving ambitions. Trump, who has shown a capacity to push through radical changes, could help loosen the regulatory standards that currently restrict Tesla’s camera-only approach to autonomous driving.
Musk’s gamble hinges on a political outcome. If Trump secures another term in office, there’s potential for a top-down directive that could lower the regulatory hurdles for Tesla, allowing its self-driving technology to advance despite safety concerns. Trump, who has shown flexibility on issues like electric vehicles and cryptocurrency, may be persuaded to push through policies that benefit Tesla if he sees personal or political advantage.
However, should the Democrats retain power, the future looks much bleaker for Tesla. Without regulatory relief, the company’s self-driving technology will continue to lag behind competitors, and the high valuation of Tesla’s stock, which is currently based on the expectation of future breakthroughs, could come under further pressure.
As Musk continues to navigate the complex landscape of technology, business, and politics, one thing is clear: Tesla’s future may well depend on the outcome of the next U.S. presidential election. For now, the world waits to see whether Musk’s vision for autonomous vehicles will materialize—or whether it will remain just another bold promise yet to be fulfilled.