Bitcoin has fallen back below $77,000 after weaker US labour-market data failed to reduce expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates again this month.
The largest cryptocurrency was trading at about $76,985, according to CryptoSlate, after July job openings remained at 7.3 million and hiring stayed subdued.
The figures were released as markets contended with oil at about $90 a barrel, rising US Treasury yields and a Federal Reserve that has moved sharply from considering interest-rate cuts to discussing another increase.
Data from CME FedWatch put the probability of a September rate rise at 66%, up from about 60% after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole on 28 August.
The latest JOLTS report did little to alter the increasingly hawkish outlook. Instead, it failed to reverse a repricing driven by concerns about inflation, higher energy costs and rising bond yields.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said there were 5.1 million hires and 3.1 million quits in July, with both figures broadly unchanged from the previous month. June job openings were revised down by 177,000 to 7.2 million, while earlier estimates for hires and quits were also reduced.
The softer labour-market turnover came less than three weeks before the Federal Reserve’s 15-16 September meeting. It offered further evidence that employment is cooling, but did not show the sharp deterioration that would settle the debate over interest rates.
At Jackson Hole, Warsh distinguished between a labour market that was cooling and one that was collapsing. He said employment remained consistent with full employment and suggested unusually low turnover was partly the result of the large-scale rematching of workers and employers after the pandemic.
His main concern remained inflation.
Further data released on Tuesday strengthened that side of the argument. The ISM manufacturing index fell to 54.6 in August from 55.6, while new orders declined to 53.7 from 56.7 and employment dropped to 51.2 from 52.8.
However, prices remained elevated. The ISM Prices Index held at 71.1 for a second consecutive month, with survey respondents reporting that fuel and oil-based products were among the commodities becoming more expensive.
Crude oil then added to the pressure. West Texas Intermediate rose 5.2% to settle at $90.22, while Brent increased 4.6% to $94.65 as the continuing Iran crisis unsettled energy markets.
US Treasury yields also moved higher. The two-year yield rose to 4.39% from 4.34%, while the benchmark 10-year yield increased to 4.79% from 4.75%.
That combination helps explain why weaker labour turnover did not reduce expectations of a September rate rise. The Federal Reserve entered 2026 anticipating several cuts, but markets are now pricing in a better-than-even chance of another increase.
The change in outlook has created a more difficult environment for Bitcoin than many investors expected earlier in the year. Higher Treasury yields make dollar-denominated assets more attractive and increase the return investors forgo when holding assets without a contractual yield. A stronger dollar can also tighten financial conditions for speculative markets.
Recent flows into exchange-traded funds indicate that the pressure may already be affecting crypto portfolios. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $236.46m on 1 September, reversing inflows of $216.7m recorded on 31 August.
That one-day reversal removed a source of institutional support as Bitcoin dropped back below $77,000.
The cryptocurrency had traded above $81,000 before Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks pushed rate expectations higher and sent Bitcoin below $77,000. Its subsequent recovery has struggled to regain momentum as the prospect of a September rate rise has become more firmly established.
The rise in oil prices creates a particularly difficult policy dilemma because the same shock that strengthens the case for higher interest rates could also weaken economic growth.
James E. Thorne, chief market strategist at Wellington Altus, said raising rates in response to an energy shock originating outside the domestic economy could increase the damage.
More expensive crude raises transport and production costs, reduces household purchasing power and puts pressure on company profit margins. Consumers who spend more on fuel have less money available for other goods and services, while businesses facing higher input costs may reduce investment or hiring.
The Federal Reserve can weaken domestic demand by increasing borrowing costs, Thorne argued, but it cannot increase the supply of oil or resolve the geopolitical developments that are pushing prices higher.
That distinction could become more important if employment deteriorates further. July’s JOLTS data showed weaker turnover, while the latest ISM employment reading also cooled. Neither has yet delivered the kind of decisive break that would clearly outweigh Warsh’s concerns about inflation.
The next US employment report could shift that balance. August payroll figures are due on 4 September, followed by producer-price data on 10 September and consumer-price data on 11 September. The Federal Reserve is due to announce its decision on 16 September.
A significantly weak payroll report would challenge the view that employment remained consistent with full employment. If oil prices also fell and later inflation figures softened, markets would have a clearer reason to reduce expectations of a September increase and push Treasury yields lower.
Weak employment while crude remained near current levels would pose a more complicated challenge, with labour-market conditions deteriorating as an external supply shock kept inflationary pressure high.
Conversely, firm hiring alongside persistent price pressure would reinforce the current outlook and could push short-term yields higher again.
Bitcoin is entering that sequence close to the level reached during the initial sell-off after Jackson Hole, and with less support from exchange-traded funds than it had at the start of the week.
