Bitcoin’s 22% recovery over the past month has improved its market structure, but Nansen analyst Nicolai Søndergaard says the cryptocurrency has yet to show enough evidence of a fully confirmed bull market.
Søndergaard, Nansen’s senior research analyst, told crypto.news that Bitcoin had moved beyond the weakest stage of its previous decline. However, subdued spot-market demand, mixed positioning among large traders and withdrawals from US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have prevented him from declaring a sustained bullish phase.
“The recovery is real, but spot flows haven’t confirmed the bull market yet,” Søndergaard said.
Bitcoin’s daily and weekly trends have turned positive, but more recent indicators are less convincing. BTC is trading below its seven-day average and short-term momentum remains weak, suggesting the recovery has not yet developed the consistency needed to support a longer-term advance.
Nansen’s data show that labelled entities sent a net 3,700 BTC to exchanges over the past week. Deposits to trading platforms can come before selling, although they do not necessarily result in immediate sales. Søndergaard nevertheless regarded the rise in exchange inflows as one of the reasons for remaining cautious.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded withdrawals of about $236m in the latest data cited by Søndergaard. The outflows came after a period of stronger institutional demand in August, when ETF buying helped lift Bitcoin from below $65,000 to above $80,000.
Bitcoin rose by roughly 24% in August, its strongest performance in that month since 2017, according to a previous report by crypto.news. During their strongest weekly run since October 2025, US spot ETFs attracted $1.92bn, while short liquidations reached $6.55bn over a two-week period.
The more recent withdrawals do not cancel out that earlier demand. However, Søndergaard said Bitcoin still needed sustained spot buying before its recovery could be considered a lasting change in the market cycle.
“That combination suggests the recovery still lacks consistent spot-flow confirmation,” he said, referring to ETF withdrawals, exchange deposits and softer short-term momentum.
Nansen’s figures also show that large Bitcoin traders have not moved into a single clear position. Whales across the addresses monitored by the firm remain slightly net long, whereas traders handling large notional positions on Hyperliquid have significant short exposure.
Funding rates are positive but remain moderate. This means traders holding long positions in perpetual futures are paying those on the short side, but the cost has not reached the elevated levels often seen when a trade becomes overcrowded.
At the same time, open interest has fallen, indicating that overall exposure to derivatives has declined. Taker-flow figures also point to continuing selling pressure in the market.
Key levels for Bitcoin
Søndergaard said those conditions could create the basis for a short-covering rally. Momentum on shorter timeframes has entered oversold territory, meaning a rise in Bitcoin’s price could force bearish traders to buy back their positions. Those purchases could accelerate an advance even if spot-market demand does not immediately improve.
Such a move would not, by itself, prove that Bitcoin had broken out into a new bull phase. A rally driven by leverage could lose strength once short positions had been closed, he warned.
Long traders face a separate threat if Bitcoin falls below $76,400, which Søndergaard identified as an important support level. A break beneath that point could put leveraged bullish positions under pressure and weaken the argument that the market has formed a local bottom.
Bitcoin recently traded close to $76,500 after falling from levels above $81,000. A separate recent market assessment placed nearby support at $76,350, with deeper levels around $74,500 and $72,000 if sellers regain control.
Although those support areas are broadly similar, Søndergaard’s view also depends on the source of any recovery. A rebound supported by heavier spot trading would be viewed more positively than one driven mainly by perpetual futures or forced position closures.
For the current recovery to become more durable, Bitcoin must reclaim and hold the $77,400-$77,650 region, according to Søndergaard. A sustained move above that band would put $80,000 back in focus after several unsuccessful attempts to remain above the round-number level.
Confirmation would require stronger spot-market volume and improving ETF flows. Funding rates would also need to stay moderate while open interest increased gradually. That combination would suggest traders were building positions without creating a significant imbalance caused by excessive leverage.
A fresh rejection at $80,000 would send a more negative signal if exchange inflows stayed high and derivatives exposure rose without a corresponding increase in spot buying. In that situation, Søndergaard would regard the rally as increasingly dependent on leverage and exposed to another correction.
Strategy has taken a more aggressive stance despite those unresolved signals. The company bought 4,603 BTC for $369.7m between 24 and 30 August, ending a pause that had lasted more than two months.
In a 31 August filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, Strategy said it had paid an average of $80,318 per coin, including fees. The purchase took its total holdings to 845,050 BTC, acquired for $63.73bn at an average cost of $75,412 per coin.
Strategy financed the acquisition through its at-the-market common-stock programme, selling more than 4.5 million MSTR shares and receiving $602.8m in net proceeds. It used $151.8m of the remaining capital to repurchase STRC preferred shares, set aside $50.7m for STRC dividends and added $30m to unrestricted dollar cash.
Strategy chief executive Phong Le has said the company’s financing costs, rather than Bitcoin’s price alone, determine when it buys. As Bitcoin approached $80,000, Le described the market as a “pretty heavy bull market” and said Strategy would continue purchasing regardless of the price.
Macroeconomic factors are also adding to Nansen’s caution. The US 10-year Treasury yield was trading near 4.80%, with higher oil prices and concerns about inflation pushing bond yields upwards.
Higher real yields improve the return available from inflation-adjusted government debt. That can reduce demand for assets that do not generate income, including Bitcoin. Søndergaard identified the yield environment as one of the constraints on the cryptocurrency, alongside stablecoin supply of about $310bn, which Nansen said had shown little recent growth.
Expectations surrounding Federal Reserve policy have shifted towards another interest-rate increase following chair Kevin Warsh’s address at Jackson Hole. Bitcoin fell from above $80,000 to about $79,200 after the remarks, while traders in prediction markets increased the estimated probability of a 2026 rate increase to 68%, according to an earlier market report.
Subsequent US employment data have made the outlook less clear. ADP reported that private employers added 38,000 jobs in August, below economists’ expectations and down from a revised 46,000 in July. Manufacturing employment fell by 17,000, while professional and business services lost 16,000 jobs.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics is due to release the official August employment report on 4 September at 08:30 Eastern Time. The figures will include non-farm payrolls, unemployment and wage growth.
