A carefully adopted crypto strategist is mapping out two potential backside targets for Bitcoin as BTC loses practically 30% of its worth in simply seven days.
Crypto analyst Rager tells his 207,100 Twitter followers he’s holding an in depth watch on the 200-week easy transferring common (SMA), which he says has marked the underside for Bitcoin through the 2015 and 2018 bear markets and the 2019 Covid-induced collapse.
“The straightforward transferring common, this blue one, is actually what lots of people are watching in terms of shopping for the dip alternatives. Traditionally, [the 200-week SMA] has been mainly the place Bitcoin closed above on the weekly or the upper timeframes…
There’s a superb chance that we see that the $22,300 the place the transferring common is at now could be an actual chance of a possible backside.”
At time of writing, Bitcoin is altering arms for $21,691. Despite the fact that BTC is beneath the 200-week SMA, Rager highlights that the bearish transfer may very well be a wick that will get purchased up.
“Even when it wicks beneath it, I feel you’re going to see lots of people, even with a wick, particularly greater gamers, [will] in all probability purchase into that.”
Though the 200-week SMA has traditionally allowed Bitcoin to print bear market lows, Rager says BTC can nonetheless go decrease in the event you’re trying on the share of retrace from the all-time excessive.
“Should you look again at 2013 to 2015, you noticed an 80% lower in worth there. The final all-time excessive [$20,000], you noticed an 83%, 84% pullback from December 2017 to November 2018… So mainly over 80% pullbacks traditionally from the all-time excessive throughout market cycles.
Now the issue with that’s that Bitcoin from the all-time excessive of $69,000 has solely went so far as 63% on that earlier wick and even when we go all the way down to the 200-week easy transferring common, that’s solely about 67%, 68% from the all-time excessive.”
In keeping with Rager, an 80% drop from BTC’s all-time excessive will drive Bitcoin to across the $14,000 worth stage. He highlights that the value space affords strong assist for BTC from a excessive timeframe perspective.
This block zone proper right here from $17,000 all the way down to $14,000 roughly, you’re going to note that’s additionally the realm the place worth rejected off that through the uptrend of 2019 after the underside and earlier than the black swan occasion. Then it got here again up, had some bother, lastly broke above, got here again down and retested stage and went again up. So I feel if it does break beneath the 200-week SMA, I do suppose that that’s a superb place to purchase.”
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