Volatility in the bond market has risen to its highest level since March, while measures tracking bitcoin and US shares remain close to their lowest points of the year.
The MOVE index, which measures expected volatility in the US Treasury market, climbed from about 80 on Tuesday to 104. It is the index’s highest reading since March.
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The rise has come as higher energy prices and increasing bond yields have intensified concerns about inflation.
By contrast, volatility indicators linked to bitcoin – including the bitcoin VIX, known as BVIV – and the S&P 500 have remained relatively subdued.
The divergence suggests that turbulence in government bonds has not yet spread to equity markets.
A measure of the relationship between bond and share-market volatility has also shifted. The 20-day correlation between the MOVE index and Wall Street’s VIX has turned slightly negative, meaning the two indicators are currently moving in opposite directions.
It is the first time that correlation has been negative since April 2024.
The VIX, often referred to as Wall Street’s fear gauge, remains near its yearly low, alongside BVIV. That contrasts with the sharp move in bond volatility, where the MOVE index has risen by about 24 points since Tuesday.
The latest figures point to a market environment in which inflation concerns are being reflected more clearly in bond trading than in either equities or bitcoin. However, the negative correlation between MOVE and VIX indicates that the pressure in the bond market has not, so far, translated into wider volatility across risk assets.
