Bitcoin has moved back above a momentum threshold that Glassnode identified near the beginning of its 2019 and 2023 bull markets, strengthening the case for a recovery while leaving the cryptocurrency facing a key test of demand.
The blockchain analytics firm said in a 22 September post that bitcoin’s market value to realised value ratio had risen above its 365-day average after an extended period below it.
Known as MVRV, the measure compares bitcoin’s market value with the estimated value of its coins based on when they last moved. A move above the one-year average indicates that the ratio has exceeded its recent trend.
The two previous crossovers came after major declines, although bitcoin followed different paths afterwards. It rose sharply in 2019 before surrendering some of those gains, while the recovery that began in 2023 continued into 2024.
That history has increased the appeal of the latest signal for bullish investors, but it does not establish a forecast for bitcoin’s performance in 2026.
The indicator turned higher as bitcoin recovered from this year’s lows and briefly reclaimed $87,000 during the week, its first return to that level since January. The price rise gives the crossover greater significance for traders, although MVRV tracks the relationship between market value and holders’ estimated cost basis rather than the amount of buying likely to follow.
Demand from US spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has also improved during the rally. The funds recorded nearly $999 million in net inflows on 21 September, their largest one-day total of 2026.
ETF flows provide a separate measure of buying activity from Glassnode’s onchain momentum indicator. However, potential selling pressure is positioned close to bitcoin’s recent prices.
An estimated 1.07 million BTC was bought between $83,000 and $86,000. As bitcoin returns to that range, some investors may be close to recovering their initial outlay and could choose to sell. The biggest concentration is around $85,000, with most of those coins held by long-term investors.
Whether current demand can absorb that supply could become an important test for the rally.
Options traders have also established positions around higher price levels, which could influence bitcoin’s next move. In its 23 September market analysis, Glassnode described $95,000 to $97,000 as the first major test if the advance continues, while saying profit-taking had so far remained relatively limited.
The improving bitcoin signal has not been reflected across the wider cryptocurrency market. In a separate 22 September post, Glassnode said less than a quarter of the median tracked altcoin’s supply was in profit.
That figure measures the proportion of a coin’s supply held above its estimated acquisition cost, rather than the number of individual investors. Prices can therefore rise even while many holders remain below break-even.
Glassnode’s 23 September analysis found that 72.5% of tracked altcoins had outperformed bitcoin over the previous week. For investors who bought at higher prices, however, those recent gains may still leave their holdings below their original purchase cost.
