Bitcoin’s downside risk is likely to remain limited while it stays above the $76,350 average cost basis of active investors, according to Bitfinex analysts.
The cryptocurrency has traded between $76,500 and $79,500 for five consecutive sessions, with selling near the top of that range absorbed by buyers around the lower end. The narrow price movement followed Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish comments at Jackson Hole on 28 August.
In its 2 September Alphareport, Bitfinex said Bitcoin’s position above the True Market Mean reduced the likelihood of a deep correction, despite September having delivered an average loss of 2.95% since 2013.
The True Market Mean measures the average price paid by active Bitcoin investors and stood at $76,350 when the report was published. Bitfinex described that figure as a market pivot rather than a precise level that buyers had to defend to the dollar.
Bitcoin entered September after a powerful August rally. It rose 24.9% from its monthly opening price of $62,922, recording its first positive August since 2021 and its biggest monthly gain since November 2024. The move left $80,000 as the main resistance level at the start of the new month, according to crypto.news coverage of Bitcoin’s best August since 2017.
The rally also produced Bitcoin’s largest-ever weekly dollar increase. In the week ending 23 August, the cryptocurrency gained $14,833, according to Bitfinex. That surpassed the previous record, set in November 2024, by $3,275 and represented a weekly return of 23.6% – the strongest percentage gain since March 2023.
Historical figures cited by Bitfinex showed that Bitcoin has recorded 17 weekly rises of more than 15% since 2020. In 14 of those instances, its price was higher 30 days later, with a median return of 8.4%.
The analysts said that history suggested any correction would probably be “short lived and limited in scale” while Bitcoin remained above the former $68,000 range ceiling. That level is also close to an area where traders have concentrated downside options protection.
Bitcoin has held firm despite two risks linked to the United States. Warsh’s comments increased expectations of another interest-rate rise, while renewed conflict between the United States and Iran sent Brent crude towards $95 a barrel.
Warsh said inflation had not slowed quickly enough to give policymakers confidence that it was returning to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. In an earlier report on his Jackson Hole speech, prediction-market traders put the probability of a US rate increase in 2026 at 68%, after Bitcoin fell below $80,000.
Higher interest rates can push up Treasury yields and the dollar, making non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin less attractive. Bitfinex said, however, that Bitcoin’s market structure had remained intact during the five trading sessions after the speech.
On-chain data showed that investors who bought around current prices were supplying much of the Bitcoin being sold. The long-term holder Spent Output Profit Ratio, or SOPR, ranged from 0.88 to 1.19 across nine consecutive sessions and stood at 0.98 when the report was published.
A SOPR reading of 1 means that coins are being spent, on average, at the same price at which their owners bought them. Bitfinex linked the recent pattern to investors who purchased Bitcoin in February and March, held through the subsequent decline and began selling when the price returned to their entry levels.
For five sessions, demand absorbed that supply without allowing Bitcoin to close below the True Market Mean. Bitfinex said the interpretation would become weaker if SOPR fell below 0.9 during a decline, suggesting holders were accepting losses to exit, or moved above 1.1, indicating that investors with larger unrealised profits were selling into rising prices.
Supply concentration around the current trading range has also contributed to Bitcoin’s sideways movement. When Bitcoin closed at $80,256 on 27 August, 72.1% of circulating supply was in profit. By the time it closed at $77,468, that proportion had fallen to 67.7%.
Bitfinex estimated that about 880,000 BTC had a cost basis within the $2,800 gap between those two closing prices. Each movement through the range therefore shifts a large quantity of Bitcoin between profit and loss, changing holders’ incentive to sell.
The short-term holder cost basis was $69,980 and was increasing by roughly $300 a day. Bitfinex identified it as possible support in a deeper fall, after an initial potential target near $73,500.
Strategy resumes buying
Corporate demand returned as Bitcoin encountered passive sellers above $77,000. Strategy bought 4,603 BTC for $369.7m between 24 and 30 August, at an average price of $80,318 per coin.
It was Strategy’s first Bitcoin purchase in 10 weeks and took the company’s holdings to 845,050 BTC, acquired at an average price of $75,412. The purchase was funded through at-the-market equity sales, according to a company filing.
Strategy’s average purchase price was above every Bitcoin daily close since 14 May, meaning the company bought in the same area where the market had struggled to hold prices above $79,000.
Demand for US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds was less consistent over the same period. A nine-session run of inflows totalling $3.04bn ended with $201.9m in redemptions on 28 August, the day of Warsh’s speech.
Inflows returned the following Monday, reaching $216.7m, with $205.9m going into BlackRock’s IBIT. On 1 September, however, the products recorded a $236.5m outflow, driven mainly by IBIT, according to figures cited by Bitfinex.
A separate analyst assessment said sustained ETF buying would be necessary if Bitcoin’s rally was to extend. That report also said spot products had attracted $606m on 20 August as Bitcoin moved above $76,000.
While Bitcoin ETF demand cooled, US spot Ether ETFs drew $815.7m during the previous week and extended their inflow streak to 13 sessions through 1 September. Bitfinex said Strategy’s renewed purchases had helped offset the slowdown in Bitcoin ETF demand.
Stablecoin supply also stopped growing after increasing by $1.25bn before Warsh’s remarks. Total stablecoin market capitalisation reached a peak of $309.4bn on 28 August before falling to $303.83bn, according to the report.
Bitfinex said the change appeared to reflect capital waiting near the market’s entry point rather than money leaving cryptocurrency through a sustained wave of stablecoin redemptions. Stablecoins are often used as settlement assets by traders, meaning total supply can provide an indication of capital available to enter the market.
Options market points to continued consolidation
Options traders have bought protection around scheduled US economic data releases, but Bitfinex said positioning did not amount to a broad bet on a Bitcoin decline.
Average implied volatility remained between 37 and 38 for a sixth straight session, at 37.2. That placed it in the 18th percentile of daily closing levels over the previous year. Options had been cheaper on fewer than one in five trading days, while the low for 2026 was 33.8.
Implied volatility also remained below trailing 30-day realised volatility of about 41%. Bitfinex said that pricing suggested traders expected the current period of compression to persist, even though Bitcoin had moved 21% across three sessions in August.
A 11 September at-the-money straddle cost $3,208 and required a 4.13% price move to break even. Unlike options expiring on 4 September, the contract covers the US payroll report, the Producer Price Index release and seven standard trading sessions.
Bitcoin moved by an average of 1.9% on the day of the eight US payroll releases held in 2026, according to Bitfinex. Four produced moves of less than 1%, while the other four resulted in changes ranging from 2.4% to 4.4%.
Downside protection for the period between the payroll report and the Consumer Price Index release was concentrated between $68,000 and $75,000. The 11 September expiry had one put option for every call, compared with an overall options-market put-to-call ratio of 0.56.
Call open interest was highest at $80,000, while put open interest was concentrated at $75,500. Leverage in perpetual futures remained 10% below its August peak. Bitfinex interpreted that as evidence that traders were maintaining exposure to further gains without rebuilding a large pool of positions vulnerable to forced liquidation.
Under its base case, Bitfinex expects Bitcoin to remain between $76,657 and $81,300 during the US data window from 4 to 11 September.
Two daily closes above $82,818, combined with SOPR above 1 and positive ETF flows on both days, would create a route towards the next cost-basis reference near $85,200.
Conversely, two closes below $76,657 would trigger Bitfinex’s retracement scenario. The three-to-six-month holder cost basis near $73,500 would become the first downside reference, followed by the short-term holder level at $69,980.
