A recent wave of high-stakes wagers has tilted a prominent crypto-based betting market significantly in Donald Trump’s favor, raising questions about the source and intent behind these multimillion-dollar bets.
In the past two weeks, Polymarket, a crypto prediction platform, has seen Donald Trump’s odds of winning the 2024 U.S. presidential election skyrocket. As of Thursday, Trump’s chances of victory were pegged at 62%, while Vice-President Kamala Harris stood at 38%. This marks a sharp shift from the beginning of October, when the two candidates were neck-and-neck in the betting odds.
Elon Musk highlighted Trump’s growing lead on Polymarket in a post to his 200 million followers on X (formerly Twitter) on October 6. Musk, an advocate for the reliability of betting markets, said, “More accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line.”
However, this surge in Trump’s favor may not be entirely organic. Blockchain analysis firm Arkham Intelligence has identified four Polymarket accounts that together funneled approximately $30 million worth of cryptocurrency into bets on Trump’s victory. “There’s strong reason to believe they are the same entity,” said Miguel Morel, CEO of Arkham Intelligence, pointing to coordinated behavior among the accounts.
These accounts, known as Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro, and Michie, all received deposits from Kraken, a U.S.-based cryptocurrency exchange. They have since consistently placed large bets on Trump winning both the presidency and swing states like Pennsylvania. The oldest of the accounts was created in June, with the most recent emerging this month.
The motives behind these substantial bets remain unclear. Some suggest that they come from a large, optimistic bettor expecting a Trump victory and hoping for a significant payout. Others suspect it might be part of a broader influence campaign aimed at generating social media buzz and momentum for the former president.
Adam Cochran, a veteran crypto investor, offered a more strategic explanation, suggesting the betting spree could be intended to create a narrative around Trump’s chances heading into election day. “If he loses, his favorable odds in the betting markets could bolster arguments that the election was stolen from him,” said Cochran, who identifies as a right-leaning voter supporting Kamala Harris.
Prediction markets like Polymarket have long attracted attention for their supposed ability to predict election outcomes, though their track record remains mixed. Polymarket’s recent successes include early bets predicting that President Joe Biden would withdraw from the 2024 race, further boosting its credibility among users.
Polymarket is currently investigating the suspicious betting activity with the help of external experts, according to a source close to the matter. While the platform’s users place their bets using stablecoins—cryptocurrencies tied to the value of the U.S. dollar—the sums involved in these pro-Trump wagers have raised eyebrows.
Though the $30 million influx has sparked questions, observers note that this sum is relatively small for any wealthy individual intent on influencing the perception of Trump’s chances in the election. “While $30 million might seem costly, it’s sufficient to swing the odds on Polymarket,” said Cochran, adding that it’s a modest outlay for anyone with deep pockets looking to affect the market.
Despite the sharp rise in Trump’s odds on Polymarket, traditional polls and other betting markets show a far more competitive race between Trump and Harris. Even die-hard Trump supporters acknowledge that his path to victory relies on winning key swing states rather than the popular vote, which he lost in both 2016 and 2020.
As the November election approaches, the mystery surrounding these multimillion-dollar bets continues to fuel speculation and intrigue, leaving many to wonder just who is behind the money and what their true intentions are.
